It has officially been determined that we are in a recession........and have been since December 2007!!! Guess, as I speculated earlier, they were just afraid to use the word!:tooth:

The positive spin is that this means we're going through the worst of it right now...how long it lingers is the issue.

-spence

The positive spin is that this means we're going through the worst of it right now...how long it lingers is the issue.

-spence

what is your guess on what will bring us out of this? Good Holiday sales? A sudden drop in unemployment? What makes you think this is the worst of it? Wait until severances, COBRA, etc run out for all those recently unemployed...... we have a lot farther to go before we hit bottom.

what is your guess on what will bring us out of this? Good Holiday sales? A sudden drop in unemployment? What makes you think this is the worst of it? Wait until severances, COBRA, etc run out for all those recently unemployed...... we have a lot farther to go before we hit bottom.

God you're negative. Recessions (hell, even depressions) don't last forever. This looks to be a big global recession that will likely last for a good part of 2009. Everything cycles, this is no different.

-spence

God you're negative. Recessions (hell, even depressions) don't last forever. This looks to be a big global recession that will likely last for a good part of 2009. Everything cycles, this is no different.

-spence

Hmm, Greece, Rome, Egypt, England.....all empires eventually fall. Is this our time?

no friggan way...

it's a transitional period where we finally tell the big 3
where to get off.... for one...

it's a time of "green" change

the greening of America you could say....

we haven't even scratched the surface technologically

theres no money in green, only expense. Technology? that will be India and China.
Just look at the news....all you see is the government spending, its spending because companies have no money, soon, the governement will have no money and no credit. Why would investors put $ in a country that is in debt? Money will go to India, China and other emerging markets.

Hmm, Greece, Rome, Egypt, England.....all empires eventually fall. Is this our time?


Funny..thought the same thing awhile back....

We have not seen the worst of it by any stretch and I don't mean to be gloom and doom here but with years end upon us we will see corporations trimming the fat.....layoffs are coming in accordance with the poor economy! Not to mention the auto industry will be laying off as they restructure their failing corporations....bail out or not that is going to happen!

Funny..thought the same thing awhile back....

ya can't believe what this lil piss ant thinks....

his time is coming....

http://i25.photobucket.com/albums/c66/ravenob1/A-ole.jpg

the technology is already here.... frig china

investors are not needed

i know what your saying....tho

but
it's a matter of utilizing what we already know how to do
but haven't had the need to use it - til now.

President elect Obama :point: seeks your counsel :btu:

I don't believe anything that nitwit says.....It was just something I thought about in passing.

yep but it addresses the whole Nostradamus prediction thing...

yep but it addresses the whole Nostradamus prediction thing...

I prefer tea leaves.

I don't believe anything that nitwit says.....It was just something I thought about in passing.

thats not nice to say about me.

Nah...that not true....Sometimes I believe what you say:blush:

It has officially been determined that we are in a recession........and have been since December 2007!!! Guess, as I speculated earlier, they were just afraid to use the word!:tooth:

Economists typically call recessions looking backwards with past data. This time is no different. The long term economic cycle typically has 5 years of expansion followed by two years or so of pullback.
Yeah, we entered a recession 13 months ago, no surprise here. The market recovery usually precedes main street recovery by six months or so. If any of this holds true, it will be roughly mid summer before we pull out market wise and begin a new uptrend, and this time next year when RI Jimmy starts buying stocks again...:laugha:
Don't any of you guys remember 2001-2003? It wasn't all that long ago things were real ugly, followed by a five year growth spurt.

uggg.

no more Tuna in 5 years either

all gone to Sushi :doh:

I agree Back Beach! I see things being worse between now and April.....the worst will be between New Years and when Obama takes office......I can see the stock market in the 7000 range for a period and mortgage rates going below 5% before the upturn. Mind you between Jan.1 and the 18th is about the time they make a decision on the "bailout" for the automakers and if it goes through it will send the market down hard! Watch!

no more Tuna in 5 years either

all gone to Sushi :doh:

the waters off Somalia abound with Tuna. Thats the silver lining in all this piracy stuff. The factory trawlers stay away.

...and industrial purse seiners

it's not going to be pretty either way until at least 100 days after the 20th. So that makes it for me time to be fishing again.
Maybe gas will be under a buck a gallon so I can afford it, since I may not qualify for that WPA job.

:
Don't any of you guys remember 2001-2003? It wasn't all that long ago things were real ugly, followed by a five year growth spurt.

yes, but then, the downturn was fueled by the terrorism threat. Basically a perception issue and consumer confidence. Today, this is not a perception issue, we have NEVER had a 700+ billion bailout package. We have not had this many housing forclosures. Even Roosevelts New Deal, had some tangible output, can anyone say they know what the 700 billion has done? No.
The past 10+ years we have built an economy on credit. Home loans, auto loans, credit cards. That bubble has burst. It is an absolute fact, this is not from CNN, but from senior investment analysis that our housing market is still 15-18% overvalued. If that continues to correct itself, you will see a doubling of the problems we have today. Doubling! 2009 will see many, many more layoffs.

give this a read
We are "solving" the symptoms by increasing the problem. Its like feeding a fat kid candy to lose weight.
http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/moneyhappy/124971

Hows this make you feel....

The head of a new Congressional panel set up to monitor the gigantic federal bailout says the government still does not seem to have a coherent strategy for easing the financial crisis, despite the billions it has already spent in that effort.

Elizabeth Warren, the chairwoman of the oversight panel, said in an interview Monday that the government instead seemed to be lurching from one tactic to the next without clarifying how each step fits into an overall plan.

we are wasting bbbbbbbbbillions of YOUR money.

Hows this make you feel....

The head of a new Congressional panel set up to monitor the gigantic federal bailout says the government still does not seem to have a coherent strategy for easing the financial crisis, despite the billions it has already spent in that effort.

Elizabeth Warren, the chairwoman of the oversight panel, said in an interview Monday that the government instead seemed to be lurching from one tactic to the next without clarifying how each step fits into an overall plan.

we are wasting bbbbbbbbbillions of YOUR money.

You want fries with that?

She's right, there is no coherent plan of action, nor will their be one from those lameducks.

Oh, and Bush is 'so sorry' this is happening.

Only 10 years we have built an economy on credit?? Try for the past 40-50 years.....just the last 20 they have been handing it out to anyone who will wait in line! Now if you wait in line they are handing out cold, hard cash!!!:fury:

yes, but then, the downturn was fueled by the terrorism threat. Basically a perception issue and consumer confidence. Today, this is not a perception issue, we have NEVER had a 700+ billion bailout package. We have not had this many housing forclosures. Even Roosevelts New Deal, had some tangible output, can anyone say they know what the 700 billion has done? No.
The past 10+ years we have built an economy on credit. Home loans, auto loans, credit cards. That bubble has burst. It is an absolute fact, this is not from CNN, but from senior investment analysis that our housing market is still 15-18% overvalued. If that continues to correct itself, you will see a doubling of the problems we have today. Doubling! 2009 will see many, many more layoffs.

Good points and I agree. I also look at the pessimism which usually accomodates market bottoms. Not sure its peaked yet, but its getting there.

Ever read Peter Lynch's book where he refers to the Mayan empire? They continually look backwards and worry about the same problems recurring, only to be impacted by something completely different? They built homes in the trees and suffered through fire.....then built homes in rock to avert fire, but were then destroyed by earthquakes....built homes near water to avert earthquakes, but were destoyed by floods, etc. I think he concludes by saying the "next big anything" usually turns out to be something different. In other words, this won't be the next 1929, but something different.
You mention perception and consumer confidence being factors in the early 90's. These two things have a lot to do with the current mire we're in now, too. Commercial lending is actually up over the last year according to a report one of my financial planners forwarded me. Consumers will follow at some point.

theres no money in green, only expense. Technology? that will be India and China.
Just look at the news....all you see is the government spending, its spending because companies have no money, soon, the governement will have no money and no credit. Why would investors put $ in a country that is in debt? Money will go to India, China and other emerging markets.
Wrong on all counts.

1) There is a ton of cash out there held by investors too afraid to risk it. When people have real solutions to solve the world's gigantic energy needs they will invest and make a killing.

2) The government already has no money.

3) The United States has the best IP protection, legal system and innovative culture in the world. This isn't going to change in the next 20-30 years regardless of what China and India do.

Investors abroad still see the US Dollar as a lower risk currency, even with our trillions in debt. It's because for the near future well still are the heart of the global economy.

-spence

Back when I was on welfare during the Clinton Administration, I went to night school at Bryant. I can remember the professors saying that government should increase spending to stimulate an economy in recession. They had a bunch of small letters after their names and they wore tweed and were very convincing.

Yup, thats the way to do it.
But, we are just printing money.
we don't have any value behind it.

just sold something!!...:bounce:

just sold something!!...:bounce:

Blood and/or Semen don't count :hihi:





was it that big contract you were bidding on?

:hihi:

Yup, thats the way to do it.
But, we are just printing money.
we don't have any value behind it.

Since when does value behind money matter when it comes to any government?All they do is just print more or more zeros on it and if that fails they issue new currency.

and then we have rampant inflation.

We're experiencing deflation right now. Inflation favors debtors and punishes savers. Since we're a nation of debtors, its not as bad as it used to be.

Wrong on all counts.

1) There is a ton of cash out there held by investors too afraid to risk it. When people have real solutions to solve the world's gigantic energy needs they will invest and make a killing.

2) The government already has no money.

3) The United States has the best IP protection, legal system and innovative culture in the world. This isn't going to change in the next 20-30 years regardless of what China and India do.

Investors abroad still see the US Dollar as a lower risk currency, even with our trillions in debt. It's because for the near future well still are the heart of the global economy.

-spence

I wont bother to debate. Time will tell. The United States has the most inovative cuture in the world? Hmm..... how are those auto manufacturers doing? Anyone own a US TV? DVD? Cellphone?
I'm curious, what have we innovated lately? Transfats at Burger King?

I wont bother to debate. Time will tell. The United States has the most inovative cuture in the world? Hmm..... how are those auto manufacturers doing? Anyone own a US TV? DVD? Cellphone?
I'm curious, what have we innovated lately? Transfats at Burger King?

So when it comes to flag burning, troop bashing or liberal anti-war rhetoric we live in the greatest country in the world bar-none.

But when the economy suffers a serious blow and we are mired in a major recession, we are a ship of fools that can't get out of our own way? We are a populous of un-skilled, un-inspired goons who are intellectually inferior?


You need to take a deep breath.

We make whatever we want that is viable and there are virtually no barriers to entry into the marketplace. We have the most supportive economy for entrepreneurship and the largest, most open, vibrant economy in the world. Even now.

The strength of the American Economy is that we are free to act upon any viable idea we may have so long as we have the capital to enter the market. TVs, Phones - that stuff is not viable to make here, but there is a lot of stuff that is and if you look around you'll see a lot of people making and selling things.

So when it comes to flag burning, troop bashing or liberal anti-war rhetoric we live in the greatest country in the world bar-none.

But when the economy suffers a serious blow and we are mired in a major recession, we are a ship of fools that can't get out of our own way? We are a populous of un-skilled, un-inspired goons who are intellectually inferior?


You need to take a deep breath.

theres no politics or pride in economics, theres data. Look at the data. Look at what we produce, look at what we owe, look at we save. Look at what got us where we are today. Where a consumer nation thats out of money.
Let me put it this way, 20yrs ago there were no "yuppie" fishing stores live SWE, guys didnt spend 600+ on a fsihing reel, 25+ on plugs, etc. All of that is the result of the 90s boom, easy credit. Those days are done, period. Argue all you want and many have, but noone is showing me DATA to prove me wrong. I have seen a lot of data suggesting that this countries opportunites for growth, a relatively stead increase since WWII is over. Like it or not.

We make whatever we want that is viable and there are virtually no barriers to entry into the marketplace. We have the most supportive economy for entrepreneurship and the largest, most open, vibrant economy in the world. Even now.

The strength of the American Economy is that we are free to act upon any viable idea we may have so long as we have the capital to enter the market. TVs, Phones - that stuff is not viable to make here, but there is a lot of stuff that is and if you look around you'll see a lot of people making and selling things.

sounds good Joe, but reality is, we invent something, then ship it overseas for them to produce, sure the stock of the inventing/owning company goes up, but the production is done elsewhere. Prove me wrong? What major consumer product is made here? Van Stalls? Clothes? Penn reels? Cars? Corn? what??? You might say computers, but you'd be wrong, all those parts are made in Korea and Mexico.

I dont know what everyone here does for a lving and I dont want to sound pompous, but I am informed working for one of the largest investment companies in the world. I know Wee Wee/Poo poo works in this industry too. Search his posts, he is as negative as I am. I believe he suggested putting all your money in gold bars in your basement. This is NOT a standard recession, you guys need to take a step back and LOOK.

I worked for one of the larger if not the largest investment companies here in the states and the truth of it is the one tradable commodity in America is Money….

The issue is we have no industry 60-70% of American cars are made over sees …… we buy lumber and some food stuffs from Canada its crazy…. we invest and offer insurances that is our leading industry. The issue is how long can we depend on one thing with no back up we are like every Hollywood starlet making big cake with nothing to fall back on. Sure we were once great and we can be there again…

We need to bring American industry back to us soil… I agree with RIJIMMY

theres no politics or pride in economics, theres data. Look at the data. Look at what we produce, look at what we owe, look at we save. Look at what got us where we are today. Where a consumer nation thats out of money.
Let me put it this way, 20yrs ago there were no "yuppie" fishing stores live SWE, guys didnt spend 600+ on a fsihing reel, 25+ on plugs, etc. All of that is the result of the 90s boom, easy credit. Those days are done, period. Argue all you want and many have, but noone is showing me DATA to prove me wrong. I have seen a lot of data suggesting that this countries opportunites for growth, a relatively stead increase since WWII is over. Like it or not.


I just want to be clear. You are now listening to and quoting some of the same guys who never saw this coming, and if they did see it coming, failed to inform each and every one of their clients of the impending doom correct?

Because now in hindsight for the casual market observer, the DATA was clear as day for those in the business.

I wont bother to debate. Time will tell. The United States has the most inovative cuture in the world? Hmm..... how are those auto manufacturers doing? Anyone own a US TV? DVD? Cellphone?
I'm curious, what have we innovated lately? Transfats at Burger King?

TPI, which is your HOME STATE pushed alot on the CF engineering front of wind turbine blades.

You should drive by there and look at the number of blade molds they have in the lot, definitely more than when they were primarily building boats.

ps: They're hiring STILL.

I just want to be clear. You are now listening to and quoting some of the same guys who never saw this coming, and if they did see it coming, failed to inform each and every one of their clients of the impending doom correct?

Because now in hindsight for the casual market observer, the DATA was clear as day for those in the business.

No, this analysis is from the highest level economists who did see this coming and warned about it. These are not the fund manager.sMy firm was not involved in the mortgage/credit issues. This analysis is for what we (the company) should invest in. Since we are a global investment company, we are looking for opportunites anywhere. All the opportunites noted are exteral to the US. China, emerging markets. That is where the growth will be.
To be clear I am not saying we become a third world country. I am saying opportunites will be much different for us. The standard of living many have been accustomed to, will be lower. Think of wall street alone - those firms payed bonuses every year whihc are over the average US employees salary. And thats not just for the top execs. Those days are over. Think of the massive impact that has! How much less "extra" money will people be spending? I remember I commented on a tread years back on why there were so many luxury car commercials in december/january. Its beccasue firms are paying out big bonuses, we're not talkking a ham and a $50 check. 50,60,70, - 1Million plus are the bonues financial firms pay........

TPI, which is your HOME STATE pushed alot on the CF engineering front of wind turbine blades.

You should drive by there and look at the number of blade molds they have in the lot, definitely more than when they were primarily building boats.

ps: They're hiring STILL.

you're looking in front of you and not ahead. Who is a major component of their work? The Military. Lets see, economic downturn, democratic president. So, do you see an increase in defense spending? Layoffs will be on the way.
And blade molds in the lot, means unused inventory. talk to me when the lot is empty.

No, this analysis is from the highest level economists who did see this coming and warned about it. These are not the fund manager.sMy firm was not involved in the mortgage/credit issues. This analysis is for what we (the company) should invest in. Since we are a global investment company, we are looking for opportunites anywhere. All the opportunites noted are exteral to the US. China, emerging markets. That is where the growth will be.
To be clear I am not saying we become a third world country. I am saying opportunites will be much different for us. The standard of living many have been accustomed to, will be lower. Think of wall street alone - those firms payed bonuses every year whihc are over the average US employees salary. And thats not just for the top execs. Those days are over. Think of the massive impact that has! How much less "extra" money will people be spending? I remember I commented on a tread years back on why there were so many luxury car commercials in december/january. Its beccasue firms are paying out big bonuses, we're not talkking a ham and a $50 check. 50,60,70, - 1Million plus are the bonues financial firms pay........

Jimmy,

All I want to know is what impact will all of this have on the price of eels in the coming months?

thats easy! since gas $ is lower and there will be less discretrionary income for most people to spend, I predict a surplus in the eel market from 2009 to 2010.

thats easy! since gas $ is lower and there will be less discretrionary income for most people to spend, I predict a surplus in the eel market from 2009 to 2010.

Hmmmmmmmm, time to build that swimming pool I've always wanted for bulk eel storage. By the time we come out of the great depression part II, I'll have the market cornered.:devil:

Ok, I'm getting this thread off track here.....back to the gloom and doom, please...:behead:

I dont know what everyone here does for a lving and I dont want to sound pompous, but I am informed working for one of the largest investment companies in the world. I know Wee Wee/Poo poo works in this industry too. Search his posts, he is as negative as I am. I believe he suggested putting all your money in gold bars in your basement. This is NOT a standard recession, you guys need to take a step back and LOOK.

And then do WHAT after we look? Are you saying that we are erasing all of the 'prosperity' achieved since WWII? Or maybe since 1992 forward. How far back are we going in terms of the world economy?

...also, we have the greatest educational/research institutions in the world

Sure india and China may have more computer scientists, but they where do they come for the PhDs, the great US of A.

Education needs to be affordable for the domestic youth. The kids are dumber than the adults these days, it needs to be the other way around.

...also, we have the greatest educational/research institutions in the world

Sure india and China may have more computer scientists, but they where do they come for the PhDs, the great US of A.

Education needs to be affordable for the domestic youth. The kids are dumber than the adults these days, it needs to be the other way around.

Who runs the technology in your house?

Maybe a sea change is what we need.
Wall St is great brain drain on the country - all these very smart people moving money around that only enrich a few lives. The best and the brightest could do so much more.
Maybe after they get laid off they'll take down the Gordon Gecko poster, put away Sun Tzu's Art Of War, and start companies that put people to work.

I wont bother to debate. Time will tell. The United States has the most inovative cuture in the world? Hmm..... how are those auto manufacturers doing? Anyone own a US TV? DVD? Cellphone?
I'm curious, what have we innovated lately? Transfats at Burger King?

The auto companies don't suffer from a lack of innovation, they suffer from labor unions and a giagantic oil lobby that stifles innovation domestically.

There never has been much high-tech manufactured in the USA, but there's plenty of product design going on, and that's where the innovation really happens...and a lot of it right here.

-spence

The auto companies don't suffer from a lack of innovation, they suffer from labor unions and a giagantic oil lobby that stifles innovation domestically.
-spence

Add slowing consumer demand and obsolesence to the list too. We're basically looking at a %$%$%$%$ty business from the top down. Bailouts prolong the inevitable. I also read many of the UAW members receive almost 80% of their compensation when they're laid off too. They need to "save" these companies so the union hacks can survive. It has nothing to do with changing the business model or product.

I also read many of the UAW members receive almost 80% of their compensation when they're laid off too.

Thats not true!!!!






***its actually 95%*** :shocked:

and they wonder why they are in a financial mess

Add slowing consumer demand and obsolesence to the list too. We're basically looking at a %$%$%$%$ty business from the top down. Bailouts prolong the inevitable. I also read many of the UAW members receive almost 80% of their compensation when they're laid off too. They need to "save" these companies so the union hacks can survive. It has nothing to do with changing the business model or product.

Excellent post.

take a look at what this guy thinks is going to happen. Won the nobel prize for economics....

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - Paul Krugman, winner of this year's Nobel economics prize, said on Monday that the world could face a Japan-style, decade-long slump.


Paul Krugman of the U.S., winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics for 2008, gives his Nobel lecture at Stockholm University in Stockholm December 8, 2008. REUTERS/Bob Strong
Speaking in Stockholm where he will collect his 10 million Swedish crowns ($1.3 million) prize, U.S. economist Krugman again called on policy makers to spend liberally to cushion a withering global downturn.

"A scenario I fear is that we'll see, for the whole world, an equivalent of Japan's lost decade, the 1990s -- that we'll see a world of zero interest rates, deflation, no sign of recovery, and it will just go on for a very extended period," he told a news conference.

"And that's unfortunately very easy to see happen."

Krugman added that in his worst case scenario there would also be a series of extremely serious crises "in particular countries that are in big trouble."

He said there were already premonitions of economic and political crises in line with those in Argentina and Indonesia in the 1990s-early 2000s, particularly "in the European periphery."

Iceland and Latvia are among European countries that have been hit hard by the global financial crisis.

"We can easily be talking about a world economy that is depressed until 2011 and maybe beyond," Krugman said.

"If there's a safe place I can't see it."

Krugman is in the Swedish capital for the "Nobel Week," when laureates attend news conferences and events culminating with the prize ceremony and a gala dinner on Wednesday.

(Reporting by Anna Ringstrom; Editing by Victoria Main)

Ahh..you know, Krugman writes op-ed pieces for the NYT - so whatever he says has the hammer and sickle stamp of the mouthpiece of the DNC. Can't go by that.

I dunno, Joe - I think he's right, the way things are going, we could all ending up living like a bunch of Latvians...

Wait a minute, where in the hell is Latvia...:huh:...and how does their GNP compare to ours? Don't know if I'd use Iceland as a prime example either.

Well, with that 1.3 mil Nobel prize, that should stave off his fears of recession.

Yup, just what the world needs - another pundit :hs:

The people of Latvia suffer the most clinical depression of any country.