Interesting track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0710W5_sm2+gif/085331W_sm.gif

For reference, the image track from 10am 8/31/2010

Should be fun driving over the newport bridge sat morn
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

Will post the latest once the Navy and Air Force update their models.
The models are trending more westward as we get closer.

Don't bet any money on it until within the T-48 hour window. There is a 200-300 mi variance in the models at T-96 or greater.

That's quite the shift westward from yesterday's models.

Correct posted models are interpolated from the the 0200 run. Need to wait another hour or so to get this mornings runs.

Looking almost like the track of '38
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

but it'll be a cat 2 by then

but it'll be a cat 2 by then

You hope!

That's an often seen track for Hurricanes. Once it gets in the groove it just rides the coast , still s#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&g energy from the water but beating the heck out of the whole coast line.

Lets hope it goes East!

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201007_model.gif

still trending west, about 60 pct of the models have been updated to the 0800 EDT run

the 40N-70W benchmark is significant bellwether. We are going to get some weatha , how much. we'll find out tomorrow.

Hope it is over by Saturday night. One of the biggest bluefish tournaments in New england is here on Cape Ann with over 600 fishermen on Sunday. We have the Lanesville Bluefish Tournament on Sunday of labor day weekend.

http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_1938_charts/at1938.gif

dON'T OPEN THE DOOR FRIDAY IT MIGHT BE eARL

Guessing this one will be quite forgettable!:uhuh:

but it'll be a cat 2 by then

So was Bob, and Carol. I was only a year old when Carol hit the cape, but I've seen the pictures. And I remember good old Bob very well. Comm Electric had a 100% customer power outage--some for as long as 10 days. Thousands of downed trees, boats blown on shore. And that sucker hit us at low tide.

Believe me--110 to 120 mph sustained winds can cause plenty of damage, as can a 10' or greater storm surge.

200 pm runs show it moving more easterly, good alignment with most models, should see this more in the next few runs
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201007_model.gif

I remember a pile of boats on the bar in Marblehead, MA for one of those storms. Had to clean it up with frontend loaders and trailer dumps.

Hope it is over by Saturday night. One of the biggest bluefish tournaments in New england is here on Cape Ann with over 600 fishermen on Sunday. We have the Lanesville Bluefish Tournament on Sunday of labor day weekend.

Any room on the boat? That's a good money tourney that even a chump like me could win if the right Bluefish runs into my lure. Then again there could be only a few boats out there and a shore fish may take the prize...

The blues still here since the last storm? Did see a guy on Channel 7 with one grinning like an idiot in the story about a guy losing his life...

Yeah, i wonder, will the tourney still be on with the hurricane coming through?

The good news is that:

a) the storm is moving fast but the time it gets up here and we should not have any intense winds for long durations.

b) the fact that we are on the downwind side and the storm is advancing fast, the peak wind will be lower.

Unless this makes a move to the west (which is unlikely with the big front moving thru) we should be OK ...yes there will be trees down and power outages but again I think the good news is that it is outtahere fast.

I took my outriggers off and dropped antennas, removed all canvas and cushions outside...tomorrow will put it on a mooring in tashmoo and double up on the line and make sure there is a good chafe protection and keep my fingers crossed.

Just got back from doubling the lines. IMHO all we're going to see in RI is some tropical storm force winds.

my power was out this morning when we woke up...

talk about an electrical gizmo addiction fit... kinda feeling

plus, i had to much wine (it was free) ---> :point: hangover
and i couldn't make coffee :hs:

i hate when that happens.... friggan Earl's Fault i bet :grins:
in advance

Jinking west a little.

can't wait to see the 0800 models. the high pressure is moving off and the trough expected before the cold front is slowing down.
It could be an ACK smacker or the hooter in muskeget channel

Im going to go out on a limb and say im not the only one who is kind of excited for a good storm. Im not taking katrina type stuff. I remember Gloria from when i was a kid living in NYC and it was pretty cool, but id like to see another.

hold on to your hats boys, he's a comin!


I'm thinking of wearing my souwester into work on friday!

I have a backyard big enough for a double-wide FEMA trailer - I hope we get the new ones....

Ugh. Not liking this am's tracks. Two of five models now have it heading for the upper Cape.

just read that the track is 30 miles off nantucket, I think it was 60 yesterday

Yes, this is going to be a real problem on the Cape, RI, LI - mainly the Cape and Islands.

Category 3 dropping to 2 (hopefully).

Ch.5 had the old boy creeping a little closer than yesterday, but hooking to the north... looks like you guy's to the south have more to worry about than we do up north.... I'll fish tonight and if it looks Iffy, i'll haul at 1Am... at least the ramp will be empty...

Should I, or shouldn't I?..... Peace of mind would have me haul it out, since I'll be leaving Friday afternoon for a wedding in Burlington Vermont. But it will be all over by Saturday AM... Then again, I'm moored at the far end of the mooring field, the end that will be the collection area if any of the couple hundred boats north of me get loose. Trailer is ready... If I haul, it will be on the evening tide. Won't have to worry about others' boats getting loose if it is in the front yard.

But should be a good night to fish the surf tonight, and tomorrow.....

The track is 20-40 east of ACK.

The NGFDL is not a good performer for this storm, the GFS and the newer HWRF are the 2 to closely watch. 2nd is the NAM


Remember there is still a pct of inaccuracy in the models, about 100 mi 36 hours

Doubled the lines yesterday, not much more I can do. Hauling her is not an option.

Should I, or shouldn't I?..... Peace of mind would have me haul it out, since I'll be leaving Friday afternoon for a wedding in Burlington Vermont. But it will be all over by Saturday AM... Then again, I'm moored at the far end of the mooring field, the end that will be the collection area if any of the couple hundred boats north of me get loose. Trailer is ready... If I haul, it will be on the evening tide. Won't have to worry about others' boats getting loose if it is in the front yard.

But should be a good night to fish the surf tonight, and tomorrow.....


I don't think it's gonna be as bad around our parts, but since you are gonna be away, I'd prob just haul it, cause it would make me nuts all weekend thinking about it ya know?

My kayak is hualed and safely stowed :D

The NGFDL is not a good performer for this storm, the GFS and the newer HWRF are the 2 to closely watch. 2nd is the NAM


Remember there is still a pct of inaccuracy in the models, about 100 mi 36 hours

Except of course, as of 2p updates, the storm was West of all the models by 25 miles or so...

Tropical Storm: Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts : Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201007_model.html)

Bryan- you make a great point. Below are all of the models and Earl as of 2 pm and Earl is west of every model:confused:

hit the wrong key

First good news. Sounds like Earl lost significant strength today.
Weather Blog : Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html)

First good news. Sounds like Earl lost significant strength today.
Weather Blog : Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html)

wind shear and colder water are death for hurricanes

I hope earl sputters and dies.Wife is supposed to fly down south this weekend.I need to re assess all my gear and get ready for fall.

BBBBBByeeeeeeee!!!

Statellite and reconnaissance fixes show that Earl has turned toward
the north-northeast...and the initial motion estimate is 015/15.
The track model guidance remains tightly clustered and shows an
increase in forward speed and a turn toward the northeast in the
next 24 to 36 hours as Earl is captured by a large mid- to upper-
level trough moving into eastern North America. Based on the
initial position and motion...the track forecast has been adjusted
a little to the east of the previous package...but lies on the left
side of the guidance suite. Later forecasts may be adjusted farther
eastward if the current motion to the east of due north continues.
Southwesterly shear of 15 to
20 knots is currently analyzed over the cyclone by UW-CIMSS and the
SHIPS model...and outflow is now restricted in the southwest
quadrant. Earl should continue to slowly weaken as it moves
northward over cooler waters and shear increases. Model fields and
cyclone phase space diagrams show Earl becoming extratropical by 48
hours...and being absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone by 72
hours. The official intensity forecast has been adjusted downward
slightly in agreement with the icon consensus.

As I read it this am,
NE gusts to 65
storm surge @4 feet

Works for me.
Still time to run out and buy the wife a rake.

The blow job that never was

time to hype the crap out of every storm again.

Ought to be good this winter. 3" of snow will now be a storm of MEGA proportions

The blow job that never was

time to hype the crap out of every storm again.

Ought to be good this winter. 3" of snow will now be a storm of MEGA proportions

At some point int he last 15 years or so the stations have decided that weather sells. It is obnoxious how much time they spend on the weather and how much they hype storms.:yak5:

A dusting is one thing, this is something else. People will die, things will get broken. The more this moves east, the less of both will happen.

Newport

Today: Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely, mainly after 4pm. The rain could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 79. Southeast wind 6 to 11 mph increasing to between 13 and 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Tonight: Tropical storm conditions expected. Showers. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 68. North wind 29 to 39 mph decreasing to between 28 and 33 mph. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible.

Coulda ridden the motorcycle today. It cost me $6 to get to work instead of .40

big storm

go getcha bread.

Welcome to Burlington. I live right in town. if you need any suggestions on restaurants or anything just send me a pm.
Have a great time.

Should I, or shouldn't I?..... Peace of mind would have me haul it out, since I'll be leaving Friday afternoon for a wedding in Burlington Vermont. But it will be all over by Saturday AM... Then again, I'm moored at the far end of the mooring field, the end that will be the collection area if any of the couple hundred boats north of me get loose. Trailer is ready... If I haul, it will be on the evening tide. Won't have to worry about others' boats getting loose if it is in the front yard.

But should be a good night to fish the surf tonight, and tomorrow.....

As I read it this am,
NE gusts to 65
storm surge @4 feet

Works for me.
Still time to run out and buy the wife a rake.

While she's cleaning up, you can head over to the yamaha dealer...

Myself, I just ordered a table saw and now I'm heading to Downes and Reader...:horse:

The first "band" of rain that is clearly waaaaaayyyyyy in advanc eof the actual storm camy through Hyannis about 11am. The hatches are battened and ready for tonight.

Oh yeah...the camper is packed and reayd becase the second they open Race Point I will be on my way. Right after a storm the fishing can be wicked good!!!!