38 Hurricane Track- A high located off the NE coast forced the Hurricane track to turn northward and unexpectedly accelerate to 70 mph forward speed over land. Maybe the broad high we are experiencing now will drift offshore and force Earl to come ashore in New England. Note that in the position where it went on shore (locs 47, 48, 49) the wind speed had dropped to 115 mph (scroll down) .. but with the forward speed of 70 mph it hit with 185 mph wind force (115+70) on its eastern side while it was only 45 mph on the western side (115-70). The tracks are surprisingly close, and at the same time of the year. Scroll down for Earl.

41233

Position Lat Lon Time Wind Speed (mph) Storm Category
1 14.2 N 21.5 W 09/10/2AM 40 Tropical Storm
2 14.4 N 23.8 W 09/10/7AM 40 Tropical Storm
3 14.6 N 25.0 W 09/10/2PM 40 Tropical Storm
4 14.8 N 26.2 W 09/19/7PM 40 Tropical Storm
5 14.9 N 27.4 W 09/11/2AM 40 Tropical Storm
6 15.0 N 28.5 W 09/11/7AM 40 Tropical Storm
7 15.2 N 29.7 W 09/11/2PM 40 Tropical Storm
8 15.3 N 31.0 W 09/11/7PM 46 Tropical Storm
9 15.4 N 32.4 W 09/12/2AM 46 Tropical Storm
10 15.5 N 33.7 W 09/12/7AM 46 Tropical Storm
11 15.6 N 34.8 W 09/12/2PM 46 Tropical Storm
12 15.7 N 35.8 W 09/12/7PM 46 Tropical Storm
13 15.8 N 37.1 W 09/13/2AM 52 Tropical Storm
14 16.0 N 38.3 W 09/13/7AM 52 Tropical Storm
15 16.1 N 39.4 W 09/13/2PM 58 Tropical Storm
16 16.2 N 40.6 W 09/13/7PM 58 Tropical Storm
17 16.4 N 41.9 W 09/14/2AM 63 Tropical Storm
18 16.7 N 43.2 W 09/14/7AM 63 Tropical Storm
19 16.9 N 44.5 W 09/14/2PM 69 Tropical Storm
20 17.2 N 45.7 W 09/16/7PM 75 CAT 1 (H)
21 17.4 N 46.8 W 09/15/2AM 81 CAT 1 (H)
22 17.6 N 47.8 W 09/15/7AM 86 CAT 1 (H)
23 17.9 N 49.0 W 09/15/2PM 92 CAT 1 (H)
24 18.3 N 50.2 W 09/15/7PM 92 CAT 1 (H)
25 18.6 N 51.6 W 09/16/2AM 98 CAT 2 (H)
26 18.9 N 53.0 W 09/16/7AM 98 CAT 2 (H)
27 19.2 N 54.0 W 09/16/2PM 104 CAT 2 (H)
28 19.4 N 55.0 W 09/16/7PM 109 CAT 2 (H)
29 19.7 N 56.3 W 09/17/2AM 115 CAT 3 (H)
30 20.0 N 57.5 W 09/17/7AM 121 CAT 3 (H)
31 20.2 N 58.6 W 09/17/2PM 132 CAT 4 (H)
32 20.4 N 59.6 W 09/17/7PM 138 CAT 4 (H)
33 20.7 N 60.7 W 09/18/2AM 144 CAT 4 (H)
34 21.0 N 62.0 W 09/18/7AM 144 CAT 4 (H)
35 21.3 N 63.6 W 09/18/2PM 150 CAT 4 (H)
36 21.7 N 65.6 W 09/18/7PM 150 CAT 4 (H)
37 22.3 N 67.8 W 09/19/2AM 155 CAT 5 (H)
38 23.2 N 70.0 W 09/19/7AM 155 CAT 5 (H)
39 24.1 N 71.6 W 09/19/2PM 161 CAT 5 (H)
40 25.0 N 72.7 W 09/19/7PM 161 CAT 5 (H)
41 25.9 N 73.6 W 09/20/2AM 161 CAT 5 (H)
42 26.7 N 74.3 W 09/20/7AM 155 CAT 5 (H)
43 28.0 N 74.8 W 09/20/2PM 150 CAT 4 (H)
44 29.8 N 74.9 W 09/20/7PM 138 CAT 4 (H)
45 32.2 N 74.4 W 09/21/2AM 127 CAT 3 (H)
46 35.2 N 73.1 W 09/21/7AM 115 CAT 3 (H)
47 39.0 N 73.0 W 09/21/2PM 115 CAT 3 (H)
48 43.4 N 73.1 W 09/21/7PM 81 CAT 1 (H)
49 45.3 N 73.5 W 09/22/2AM 52 Tropical Storm
50 47.3 N 77.0 W 09/22/7AM 40 Tropical Storm
51 45.4 N 79.1 W 09/22/2PM 40 Tropical Storm


41234

It may be, I aready pulled my boat out and are prepared for it. I have a gut feein this may be a good one. I think people are takin it very lightly, But wit this weeks high temps it may suck it right into us

:yawn:

In terms of track, conditions, damage - maybe.

But not in terms of death toll.

IN '38 THEY HAD ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA THE STORM WAS COMING!

no! I'm f'in going camping this weekend and nothing is goign to ruin it!

72 years ago on September 21, the wind at the Blue Hills observatory hit 186 MPH, the third highest wind gusts ever recorded.

ya know I knew we had some old guys on this site, but '38? damn!

:rotflmao:

I AM NOT PULLING THE DAMN BOAT!!!!:fury:

Bear in mind that coastal development was virtually non-existent in 1938.

Loss of life might not be as severe, but property damage could be staggering.

Lots of people with no clue of how powerful even a cat 2 storm can be, have built or have bought houses that will turn into driftwood. Don't forget--Bob hit here at low tide, and there was still a pretty big storm surge. My mom has pictures of what Taylor's Point, at the west end of the Canal behind the Maritime Academy, looked like after Carol in 1954--it ain't pretty.

We are way overdue for one of these things to hit us head-on, with 130 mph winds, at high tide.

I AM NOT PULLING THE DAMN BOAT!!!!:fury:

If its head on, I will pull. All I need is the bilge to go and she takes on too much water. Freaking T-top will be like a sail. I'll make the call thursday afternoon.

if the track is correct, it should be rounding the cape and hitting the north shore at high tide

If its head on, I will pull. All I need is the bilge to go and she takes on too much water. Freaking T-top will be like a sail. I'll make the call thursday afternoon.


If you end up pulling it, you should just keep it on the trailer for the fall.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201007_model.gif

A quick bit of rain, wind. Sunday should be fine.

Probably not 1938 redux . the trough on the east coast is keeping it east of the 1938 track (as of now). there isalso a weak high in the center of the Atlantic helping to steer Earl and Fiona. close miss.

Jimmy ..did I see you on the water yeterday ...heading north ..upside Jamestown .....ya wife was the captain ????

Jimmy ..did I see you on the water yeterday ...heading north ..upside Jamestown .....ya wife was the captain ????

Shhhhhhh! The wife thought I was at work!!!!
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

Shhhhhhh! The wife thought I was at work!!!!
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

Priceless :hihi:

-spence

I'm already in a hurricane hole, Royal River, Yarmouth, ME. So unless it's a direct hit, the boat stays in till hunting starts. I don't figure it's goint to hit land this far north, but the end of the Cape? There could be a fire sale on plywood today or tomorrow.

I'm already in a hurricane hole, Royal River, Yarmouth, ME. So unless it's a direct hit, the boat stays in till hunting starts. I don't figure it's goint to hit land this far north, but the end of the Cape? There could be a fire sale on plywood today or tomorrow.


Aunt Mirna (brides relative) lives in Yarmouth, with the Royal in her back hard.

Weather Channel isn't as optimistic for us as some of the computer models--they say almost a certainty of hurricane warnings being posted for the Cape.

The latest NWS update I saw put it 500 miles due south of NYC on Friday morning, before it makes that NE or NNE turn--and that's a bad track for us, with a storm that big.

I think tropical storm force winds and 20' waves are a given on Saturday. Only question is whether it'll be a full force hurricane.

FEMA is deploying to Boston as we speak
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

Figured that the weekend was a wash, so I did a half day of work yesterday and fished Soco by boat in the afternoon. Out on the water it was a ghost town. All the lobster gear is pulled and the coastal Charlestown residents that I spoke to before I headed out are all bracing for the worst. Should be quite a show down there by the weekend.

Weather Channel isn't as optimistic for us as some of the computer models--they say almost a certainty of hurricane warnings being posted for the Cape.

The latest NWS update I saw put it 500 miles due south of NYC on Friday morning, before it makes that NE or NNE turn--and that's a bad track for us, with a storm that big.

I think tropical storm force winds and 20' waves are a given on Saturday. Only question is whether it'll be a full force hurricane.

ouch, I thought this morning's forecast looked better for the cape.....lame

Matt Noyes: Broadcast Meteorologist There has been nearly a 100 mile northward shift in hurricane guidance early this morning. The average guidance track is now closer to New England than the NHC forecast. Would like to see full suite of new model guidance (comes in thru early afternoon) before jumping. This has been a concern for me given how this st...orm matches up against history, referenced in the pre-dawn technical discussion.

map

"She's coming on, boys, and she's coming on strong"

Went down to double the lines this morning, wished I could have stayed, it was a beautiful day for fishing! No wind at all and only a gentle groundswell. The weekend is going to suck!

Before the '38 Naps was covered with cute little cottages.



All gone bye bye.
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

Before the '38 Naps was covered with cute little cottages.



All gone bye bye.
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device


Stuff ended up in what is now sometimes referred to as The Kitchen

Stuff ended up in what is now sometimes referred to as The Kitchen

actually, most of it ended up where the barn island boat launch is

WunderMap Interactive Radar & Weather Stations : Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=42.68244&lon=-64.51172&zoom=6&type=hyb&units=english&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=1&hur.wr=0&hur.cod=1&hur.fx=1&hur.obs=1&hur.hd=0&hur.mdl=1&hur.opa=70&hur.img=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&pb=0)


Unclick everything but Earl, the GFS model, add the track and the wind coverage

what you'll see is potentially, 30-50 kt for RI/MA except for the cape and islands.
,
this image will update with the latest model runs, as of now that was 1800 GMT, models are run 4 times a day, EDT 0800,1400,2000 and 0200

38' Hurricane Collage I did a few years ago... Not pretty at all.

I'm at pier 5 (monahans) in gansett right now. Rhode island sound is smooth as glass with gentil swells rolling in.
You'd never know storms coming
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WunderMap Interactive Radar & Weather Stations : Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=42.68244&lon=-64.51172&zoom=6&type=hyb&units=english&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=1&hur.wr=0&hur.cod=1&hur.fx=1&hur.obs=1&hur.hd=0&hur.mdl=1&hur.opa=70&hur.img=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&pb=0)


Unclick everything but Earl, the GFS model, add the track and the wind coverage

what you'll see is potentially, 30-50 kt for RI/MA except for the cape and islands.
,
this image will update with the latest model runs, as of now that was 1800 GMT, models are run 4 times a day, EDT 0800,1400,2000 and 0200

GFS is holding steady on the bench, ensemble track has the path a little closer to ACK now. I'm thinking 30-65 kt.

Tropical Storm Warning for all of the coast bridgeport to Portsmouth.
Hurricane warning for Barnstable, Dukes and ACK counties.

Rain is 2-5" with locally higher amounts depending on the deformation of the eye in the high level shear.

Aunt Mirna (brides relative) lives in Yarmouth, with the Royal in her back hard.

If you're ever in town John give me a ring I'll take y'all out for a spin and a little :fishin:

If you're ever in town John give me a ring I'll take y'all out for a spin and a little :fishin:
Hehehe, will do ;) - Beautiful up there.