GS's trip south has me thinking... He mentions how the conditions were cold temp wise (ambient and water?) and that there is a huge run-off from all of the rains. Historically, if I remember correctly, this causes poor spawning conditions in the Chessapeke Bay tributaries with the resulting poor YOY indices. High freshwater content and colder than average water temps severely impacting the spring spawn... Any coments?

Thanks,

John

JohnR, I really think that if we don't get some warm temps soon and some nice sunny days, with a strong south west wind, that the fish will be running a little late this year. Pray for better weather!!!
I really don't know how the water clarity will affect the spawn. If the herring are starting in the runs all ready and they have found there way, makes me think the other fish can too, but I am no scientist.
If I remember correctly the fish were late last year because of a colder spring than we had for the 3 previous years to last year. I think that is why the canal fishing was not as great until later, as I remember the fish showed up way after the herring run had already been booming.

Hey FW - my fear isn't so much when will they show, although I do expect they'll be a little late, my worry is that with the cold temps in those tributaries and the lower salinity will produce a poor spawning season. I've read a couple books and studies (I'm going to look for the links) that say that few females will attempt to spawn if the conditions are poor, causing another low young of the year count based on real low numbers of spawning fish. Not how it will impact this year but 3-5 years down the road. I am now biologist either but 0+0 is still 0, knowhatimean??

Gotcha there John, don't really know what will happen, we had a great year last year with alot of small fish. Hopefully the water will clear soon and help the species, sad thing is you can't stop mother nature, all things happen for a reason, good or bad!!!
Who knows maybe we will luck out in the coming weeks with some really nice weather.

I went and checked out some Maryland sites but nothing which would indicate (not everything can be imediately available online :o ) ... Maryland does have a nice site: http://www.dnr.state.md.us/fisheries/ with much info - hopefully something will be there soon...

That's good thinking John. Makes sense to me. I wonder if the marine fisheries people are aware of this theory, they probably are. But the question is what can they-we do about it? Maybe some stricter regs. for Comms. and Recs.? Isn't the point of studing the fish populations to be able to manage their numbers by being able to predict these type of things and Put a plan in place to maintain the species, whether it's too much rain yhat will affect spawning,over fishing, lack of pogies , whatever?

I don't know but I did do some more reading of The Striped Bass by Nick Karas on the trip and that suggests the water temp and salitity all play a factor. If they are anything like a freshwater bass, stable weather is the key and the worse thing to happen is a sudden downturn in weather after the spawn has begun.

I would guess it might delay things and if it did so by too much, maybe a percentage of spawners would elect to skip it and the eggs would be reabsorbed. But I'm no biologist, so who knows.

This weather doesn't make me a happy camper thou, I need a good blast of 60 degree weather to cheer me up and get things moving.

[img="http://www.rgsiroisco.com/fisherman.gif"]
Tight lines.

GS - the main thing that had me thinking along those lines is that book, The Striped Bass, by Nick Karas . He is an icthyologist (don't ask me to say it in public, I'll, ah, get a lisp) with far better understanding than I have and he translates it well into fisherman's terms. But he focuses several chapters on that subject...

Slip, that's not my thinking as much. It is based on some things I've read and I'm sure the researchers are keeping an eye out for it. Whether we see the raw data or the finnished product and when is anyone's guess. As far as the YOY indices that are used, I have not seen any using climate data in relation to the index itself - doesn't mean that it's not out there though....