Supposed to be my friend, but not everyone is as ethical as I am :smash:

A case of "If I hadn't of believed it I wouldn't have seen it"?

Actually, the science is typically ok. As long as your observations are correct and your data collection is as good as it can be, it often boils down to differing interpretations. The main issue is usually with groups that interpret the interpretations, not with the scientists themselves!

I have my problems with this so called science. Good science leaves little ambiguity, it should be definitive. At a minimum if a proper error analysis could be done you should hear we are 93.4% confident this is the cause....but you don't. Error analysis cant be done because there are too many inaccurate parameters. (How many fish are there, how many were caught, released, died of natural causes, how many fishermen are there and how often they actually catch fish etc) I think this rec lic was intended to be a step to help quantifying these parameters but it will take a long time to resolving this IMO.

The fact is at one time excess rain was the problem in the 80's now it is part of the solution it seems. This effects your credibility anyway you look at it.

So, what we have today is a educated guesstimate which is being labeled "the best science". I am an engineer not a scientist and even I find this insulting. This is not science. Where did they get these guys?

The proper thing to do is until we KNOW with say 95% confidence that XXXX is the problem is to err on the side of conservation and the fishery dept's are simply not doing this. If this means a if a cut back of 50%, stopping comm fishing, or a complete shut down is needed to INSURE the future, fine, do it, TAKE ACTION. What we have is a chubby old man (Diodati) driving the fishery bus by looking in the rear view mirror, telling everyone don't worry what the spawn was good 10 years ago while his engine is ablaze and he is headed into a brick wall.

Its not Diodotis call, its the ASMFC's call...

Further more that guy has forgotten more about the Striped Bass than any of us will ever know!

He is no friend of the SB does and does not have conservative bone in his body. He is a puppet. If he isn't forced to do something, he doesn't . He supports commercial SB fishing in MA because it is an "Historical fishery" same goes for why RI's get to comm fish in MA . I asked him face to face.

Unfortunately, he seems to have done that on purpose.

I would like to see some information on survival of the last several YOY classes. My impression is that the number of small fish has declined drastically over just two years. Yes we hear story after story about acres of bass offshore, but these seem to be primarily large fish.

Where are the next generation people hope to target in years to come?
I suspect they are gone, victims of mycobacteriosis perhaps. I think the drastic decline in recreational catch numbers (not poundage) reflects this.

I doubt Mr Diodati will consider that, however.

Actually i had a converstaion with him the other day that was quite to the contrary....but u guys think what you want...u still hate the commercial fishery it has nothing to do with Paul or YOY! U have some inbred hatred for commercial fishng..do you hate yourselves for doing it in the 60's and 70's when the limit was 16" and you killed everything to pay for your beer? I pay a a lot of my actual bills thru the commercial use of the bass...really when it comes down to it I believe we will all see a reduction in the next couple of years and with that we will probably see limit entry or catch share programs...

Nobody "Hates the commercial fishery". What we hate is the continued pressure from commercial AND recreational special interest groups to keep on killing as many striped bass as we can twist the science to justify.

Catch rates in numbers of fish is plummeting.
Small fish have disappeared.
Blame recreational fishermen, commercial fishermen, seals, or bacteria, it doesn't matter......something is obviously wrong even if you chose not to see it.
Something should change, but it won't.....not with people like Mr Diodati pulling the strings.
Maybe we'll get a great year class and it will save us yet again.
Counting on that while the remaining large fish are slaughtered does not strike me as a prudent fishery management plan.

I don't hate anyone and I respect your views. I have a comm lic myself! I actually support R&R comm fishing as it is more ethical then draggers in the sound who dump discard. What I don't like is the way it has been/ and is being managed. You yourself admit things will get worse, yet you still want to exploit them commercially for personal gain...and you call me a bad guy???

It's been mismanaged (on many fronts) for so long now I think we have to take a reduction...something like 1 fish for recs and no comm fishing (IMO) as a minimum.

The only reason he spoke out against the gamefish bill is it takes HIM out of the managing loop. This would no doubt help the fish and dethrone him. Of course he would say it was a bad idea, what would you expect? He can not be objective, he is a puppet for the commercial fisherman's interest. Your in good hands.

I don't want to get involved with the comms vs, the recs. What I do have is a very strong opinion about the the rec limits. 2 fish, 28" is contributing to the down turn in the bass fishery.
I lived through the moritorium. I lived through 1 fish 34", then 1 fish 36". The bass came back. One fish a day is enough.

The charter guys take 6 guys out and everyone limits out. That's 12 fish not counting the mate and the captain. The charters go 6 or 7 days a week.

Do the math. One boat could kill 250 to 300 fish a month. That number times all that charters in Mass and RI and all the recreational boat fishermen and the recreational surfishermen and ...well just do the math. The commercial guys are NOT the problem.

A one fish limit would go a long way toward more fish and bigger fish. I often hear the argument that many guys cannot catch a 36" fish. Tough *&^%. Learn how to be a good fisherman and you will catch bigger fish. There use to be a saying in the surf crowd about putting your time in. Now everyone wants instant gratification and the 28" size lends itself to that very thing.

Personally, I don't kill many fish anymore. If I do, it has to be over 20# which is 36".

But then again what the hell do I know. I've only been chasing these fish for 43 years.

Guys thank you for your honest remarks! I have no doubt about your passion for this fish...I do agree that if we don't see some recruiting pretty soon than the ASMFC will contract on the quotas a bit to help curb anything catestrophic from happenning. I also would put this on the table as well, if they ever stopped commercial bass and then cut the rec take to one a day...and the YOY index did not come back...would you still blame management or would you start to be lieve that more biological issues are causing the lack of fish? I still have not seen this down turn, but I don't target schoolies I target keeper sized fish for my charters and obviously commercial sized fish...I do surf fish on some southern facing beaches in May and June and found plenty of fish there all last spring, maybe I just got lucky! Doug

there are probably 10 times as many people fishing for stripers now than when the limit was 1@34..... So even if the take limit was reduced to 1 a day, more would be killed than in the late 80's...
Sad
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

Thanks, Piemma, for your thoughts.....I think most boat/surf fishermen don't realize that when the numbers mentioned by ASMFC for recreational catches are mentioned, that the charter industry is probaly the major factor for that increase. When you look up and down the Coast, and tabulate the number of charter boats chasing bass, it becomes pretty clear where the fish are going. In Connecticut, New York, RI, for instance, even head boats fish for stripers (probaly NJ, also)....a lot of 6-pack captains do double trips (AM, late afteroon, evenings). There is nothing wrong with what they are doing-they are making a living, and I don't begrudge them. As an R&R commercial fisherman, it bothers me to hear the same old rant, that it is the commercial fisherman that is ruining the striped bass fishery. It simply is not true....there is a coast wide quota limit that is set for each state that allows it-the quota hasn't changed in several years....
I think because other fisheries (cod, tautog, fluke, flounder, tunoids) have stringent quotas, or aren't as prevalent as before, that there is a lot of pressure on the bass, because of their abundance.....Back in the bass crash of the late 70's, very few charter boats fished for bass (it was hard work then)...bluefish and tuna got most of the pressure.
Anyways, hope my comments add a little food for thought....

..Thank you both!...Piemma and jmac.....on another issue........rumore has it in RI..discussed at length to.... if MA bans out of state com fisherman(i.e.RI)--MA menhaden, and other com fisheries would be denied access to that state(RI)...hey, what do I know......been fishing stripers(recreational, several years chartering, guiding, and commercial) for over 45 years.....

if the bass stocks are in trouble as some say,i am curouis how reducing the numbers caught will increase the numbers of future bass. i do not buy that the more fish thererare the greater the chances of more bass.if conditions are right it doesn't take a huge number of breeders to create a new class of fish.i am no scientist, but have spent a good part of my 54 years working and playing on the water.basically overfishing takes place when a species no longer can reproduce to replenish what is being taken.you want more fish figure out why they aren't reproducing.

Really? You don't see how if less fish are killed, then there will be more fish in the sea?

Without being a wiseass I must state that I find your argument to be without foundation.

Of course if you have fewer fish then you have fewer fish breeding so you have fewer new fish. Simple equation

Actually, there is some truth to what he says. It does not take very many fish to have a successful YOY class if conditions are right, and I believe that genetic studies have shown that big YOY classes may be the result of several hundred fish spawning successfully in one small area. Presumably this is what "saved" the fishery back in the early 90's. On the other hand those few hundred fish are typically from the same school and are prone to being wiped out quite easily by intense focused fishing effort.....which is the norm these days when the remaining fish are located. The fewer schools, the less the chance one group hits it big.

His argument also overlooks the toll natural mortality takes on fish. There where loads of small fish everywhere 3 years ago. Coincident with the mycobacteriosis epidemic they seem to have disappeared. If natural mortality goes way up, fishing mortality has to go way down or the number of fish plummets quickly.

Paul,i guess i don't have a foundation for my argument,but as George mentioned the bass did rebound when the numbers were at all time lows.in my many years of digging clams i have seen areas that were barren of clams,a few chowders here and there ,turn in to some of the most productive areas. look at narraganset bay in the early 80's. the indian river in Florida 83.it didn't take many clams to turn an empty bottom into a bonanza.i also saw how an entire set of clams die when the army corp opened the flood gates on the river.of course the clammers were blamed for raping the river.i guess being an uneducated ,greedy drunken commercial i can't see what is in front of me. i have only been surf fishing 13 years ,i am seeing and catching more fish than ever before. i fish both LI and Cape cod.many of the guys i know who are not internet heroes are also having banner years from delaware to the mass border. sure some of the traditional areas are not producing for some , but a lot of other out of the way areas and not well know are producing.working in a tackle shop i get tired of people complaining how bad fishing is,when if they walked a little they would be on fish big time.just because they aren't were you caught them in the past doesn't mean they are gone.

it seems the facts tend to lead towards the direction from which the funds flow.

a few years ago ct sprayed for mosquitos and a bunch of lobsters died.

ct asked uconn (no conflict of interest there!) to investigate

preliminary findings were inconclusive.

uconn applied for a grant (from ct) for further study

study completed, still inconclusive to spraying but found an amoebic parasite that eats lobster nerves, but, only in a weakened state. healthy lobs are not affected.

the study , however, just could not come up with what weakened the bugs.

how hard did they look?????

ya want to get funded next time?????

I, in no way, meant to minimize your statement or contribution to this thread.

In my opinion (and I should have stated that beforehand) I think that an increase in size and a decrease in bag limit will help the Bass population. But that's just my opinion.
Now I tend to agree with you about having a good year last year. I, too, had a great year in the boat and in the Canal in the Fall. However, if you talk to Joe P, John Lee (Goosefish), RIRockhound and Eben, you will hear a dramatically different story. Even Steve Mc Kenna, a true high hook, will tell you that last year was one of their worst years for fish in general, both quality and quantity.

So who know what the answer is. One thing is certain: "Time will tell".

McKenna told me that the last 2 years were worse for him than durring the moratorium years!!!
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People have bad years, i have seen it in the tuna world...

I would agree with you if the subject wasn't Steve McKenna.

Steve is an elite Striperman. Written tons of articles. Practically invented the loaded, rigged Sluggo and fishes 120 nights a year from the Block to Cutty to Narragansett and everywhere in between. If last year was as bad as he says, then there is a probelm.

Bingo

That's the very first thing I thought when I read your previous post this morning, Paul

As in anything else, consider the source first - and Steve's credentials on the issue are impeccable, IMNSHO

It also echos the conversation I had a few nights ago with a well-known inshore charter guide whose opinion I respect

Ultimately, that's the beauty of the Interblab on important issues - people are whomever they claim to be and you end up with large chunks of unsubstantiated opinion mixed with the excitement of typing...:doh:

In the end it's like the blind men trying to describe an elephant

Along similar lines is the argument..."The fish are around, you just have to work harder." No S&^%$, really? If you have to work harder to find them, than by default, there ARE less fish.

idiots. :wall:

I had no idea my innocent little thread on a Professor's presentation would draw so many good thoughts.

Regardless of who agrees or disagrees these forums are good because they foster dialog about something we all share and care about.

To a large extent I agree with you when you say that fisheries science isn't hard science. But I disagree when you say that they can't come up with a confidence level. They do it all the time, but you have to dig down to the Science and statistical committee on the federal level or the Technical committee at the ASMFC level to find that data. Several years ago the NMFS lost a suit by the Environmental defense fund because the Probability (confidence level) that the recommended TAC would achieve the rebuilding target was less than 50%. After that every year the NMFS selects a TAC that has a greater than 50% probability of achieving the rebuilding target. But Probabilities and confidence levels are statistical tools, they are no substitute for better science than we have now in fisheries management.

Some people are a creature of habbit, certain people wiegh in fish and you know exactly where they are caught, some fish the same spots, year after year... ADAPT!

I have the most respect for Steve, even had the pleasure of fishing with him years ago on Block.... I may be wrong but I dont think he even fished nearly as much these past two years as he has in the past....

How was Narragansett bay late May early June this past year? Many of the coms were doing 50 plus fish a trip, fighting through that many smaller fish to get their legal fish. There were Pogies everywhere as where the Bass. What happened when the netters decimated the Pogies and after al the heavy rain we had. The Pogies disapeared, as did the bass...

If I commercially fished where I caught my limits in say 05, 06, 07 in 08 and 09 I would have packed it in and called it quits... Patterns change, sometimes every year, every other year, every two years, every five, every decade, or so on...

Point is you can fish the same areas year after year and hope that the fish come to you, but if you want to consistantly catch you gotta go to the fish..... I have to admit, I am not the least sorry for those guys that bitch about the driving or walking... They want the fish in their back yard... Im sorry, but sometime Its called laziness.... Like I really enjoy sleepin in my truck 4, 7, 10, 14, 18 days .. Did it off the surf and do it now, off the boat... How about the bait runs.... Its more work getting bait nowadays vs the fishing! I used to laugh when the guys bitched about how long and a horrible walk Napatree is, Or guys fishing the Back beaches on the cape, But only where they can drive in missing the suicidal bites 1/4, 1/2, 1 mile down the beach... There is hundreds of miles of coastline where you can catch a fish on any given day... Im sorry, I hate it too, but it may require some driving or some walking!


We had some of the best years go by us these last few, some would say they were the worst for them...

Has block Island ever returned to what it was in the 80's in the late fall, November?? NO...Just talk to Dennis Zambrotta, Al Pelini, and so on ... But the summers have been spectacular...

Has the Cape returned to what it was just a decade ago? NO and probably wont for some time... Talk to some of the Best there Like Tony Stetzko... I just talked to him the other day... He knows where the fish are.. OFFSHORE. I would love to go back to the surf on the cape and have the fishing we used to have. We talked about what variables you had then, and what we have now.. Heck what bait did they have in the surf when they had all those big bodies of fish in the 80's...

I spoke with DJ Muller a few days ago... He had a great season off the Surf, from NJ to MV... Had a great fall down here off the NJ Coast...

We used to enjoy a great fishery here in NJ all summer long, I used to head out any given night and bail fish with rigged eels off Jetty country... Also not a soul in site.... July, Aug, and Sept. Its a thing of the past, has been for about 15 years... Our late falls, November and December were legendary, The tip of the hook produced some monsters, guys from LI would come to the hook... It never came back, in almost 30 years... Funny, you can ask most of the surfrats in NJ if the fishing is in decline and they will look at you as if you are Crazy, just look at whats wieghed in NJ in the Spring, they had the best few springs ever...

Ahh.... What about Oregon Inlet, NC, in December, January... Geez, those beach runs to Hatteras were awesome... What happened the last few years??? didnt happen to have anything to do with sub 40 degree surf temps and no bait... Can you imagine, the bodies of bait and fish 30+ Miles OFFSHORE of NC VA?? Who would to think?? Surfcasters can stay on the sand and huff and puff.... Cant change mother nature, no matter what....

The surf runs have been bad in the summer and fall in Rhode island and Mass, but the surf runs have been the best ever here off the NJ coast the last 4 year or so, accounting for some real pigs... was the other way around just 5,6,7,8,9 years ago....

We can debate this all you want... Surf Books had Striped Bass as the 1000 Hour fish... People have gotten spoiled, striped bass has been so commercialized and so many more people are fishing now than before. They expect to catch every time they go out...Some people bitchin, are the ones that did articles on exact spots, commercialized and wrote about their techniques and so on... I gotta tell you, sometimes you have to change more than just where you fish but also how you fish.... seen it from the West Jetty of Moriches, Block, Vineyard, Cutty, Napatree, Watch Hill, I can go on.

My local area we had a boom of charter Captains, not that Im an old timer or anything, just that not to long ago anybody good get a boat, charter, and make some $$$... I like a challenge, I want it tough, maybe gets some people off the water..... Everybody seems to want it easy... There are way more surf fishermen, charter captains, boat fisherman tageting striped bass than just 10 years ago.... Guess we need to settle back to reality, we are sharing these fish with way more people..

The Giant Bluefin never returned off the Jersey Coast, whos Bitchin'??

What about the whiting off the surf, the cod???

Im done wasting a single other minute on these boards listening to people crying over how bad the fishing is and where the fish are and blah, blah...

Steve mckenna may have had is worst year ever, but many had their best.....

Funny how when there is no fish around I, and others I know, could still average 600 plus pounds a commercial day??? I could put clients on my boat and the fish are stacked and they wont get a hit, sometimes the smallest thing could make a difference, and they want get a touch until something is pointed out...point is when its tough not everyone can catch.... The comm guys from the vineyard said that this was the best com season they ever had... What about all the weight that came in from cape cod this year??

The Same Surf Guys were succesfull this year and every year, Why???? This year might not have been as "Easy" as years past and they had to adapt, travel, to be succesfull....

I know there is no fish.... Give up, quit fishing...Its Fishing, not Catching... requires some work and effort... One of the worst things that gets my blood boiling is a miserable, negative attitude - It accounts for zero or minimal success....

Sometimes you cant fight mother nature... How are you going to bring fish up on the beach if there is no bait???? Seems the majority of the people complaining are surfcasters, primarily in Mass and RI, because the fish are not on the beach like they were some years. Everyday cant be like cutty this past June.. Those big bodies of fish need the bait to sustain them.... As far as this armegedon of striped bass, Maybe 12-21-12 the last striped bass will be caught??? There is way to much Gloom and Doom on this board....

I just dont think The McKenna Barometer means the end is near.... PANIC!

I think it is foolish to deny there are less fish when COASTWIDE the recreational catch number is 1/3 of what it was 2 years ago.

Remember, a large percentage of that recreational number is made up of professional charter catch. Subtract that and you can easily see why us average schmuck recreational fisherman are not particularly happy.

Sure if we quit our jobs, ignore our family, trailer a rig hundreds of miles, fish bait guided by electronics and cellphone contacts we could do well.......but that is not why most of us fish, nor what many of us consider fishing. Too bad for us, it appears.