Yes, this is going to be a real problem on the Cape, RI, LI - mainly the Cape and Islands.

Category 3 dropping to 2 (hopefully).

Ch.5 had the old boy creeping a little closer than yesterday, but hooking to the north... looks like you guy's to the south have more to worry about than we do up north.... I'll fish tonight and if it looks Iffy, i'll haul at 1Am... at least the ramp will be empty...

Tracking closer than yesterday...
 

Should I, or shouldn't I?..... Peace of mind would have me haul it out, since I'll be leaving Friday afternoon for a wedding in Burlington Vermont. But it will be all over by Saturday AM... Then again, I'm moored at the far end of the mooring field, the end that will be the collection area if any of the couple hundred boats north of me get loose. Trailer is ready... If I haul, it will be on the evening tide. Won't have to worry about others' boats getting loose if it is in the front yard.

But should be a good night to fish the surf tonight, and tomorrow.....

The track is 20-40 east of ACK.

The NGFDL is not a good performer for this storm, the GFS and the newer HWRF are the 2 to closely watch. 2nd is the NAM


Remember there is still a pct of inaccuracy in the models, about 100 mi 36 hours

Doubled the lines yesterday, not much more I can do. Hauling her is not an option.

I don't think it's gonna be as bad around our parts, but since you are gonna be away, I'd prob just haul it, cause it would make me nuts all weekend thinking about it ya know?

My kayak is hualed and safely stowed :D

Except of course, as of 2p updates, the storm was West of all the models by 25 miles or so...

Tropical Storm: Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts : Weather Underground

Bryan- you make a great point. Below are all of the models and Earl as of 2 pm and Earl is west of every model:confused:

hit the wrong key

First good news. Sounds like Earl lost significant strength today.
Weather Blog : Weather Underground

wind shear and colder water are death for hurricanes

I hope earl sputters and dies.Wife is supposed to fly down south this weekend.I need to re assess all my gear and get ready for fall.

BBBBBByeeeeeeee!!!

Statellite and reconnaissance fixes show that Earl has turned toward
the north-northeast...and the initial motion estimate is 015/15.
The track model guidance remains tightly clustered and shows an
increase in forward speed and a turn toward the northeast in the
next 24 to 36 hours as Earl is captured by a large mid- to upper-
level trough moving into eastern North America. Based on the
initial position and motion...the track forecast has been adjusted
a little to the east of the previous package...but lies on the left
side of the guidance suite. Later forecasts may be adjusted farther
eastward if the current motion to the east of due north continues.
Southwesterly shear of 15 to
20 knots is currently analyzed over the cyclone by UW-CIMSS and the
SHIPS model...and outflow is now restricted in the southwest
quadrant. Earl should continue to slowly weaken as it moves
northward over cooler waters and shear increases. Model fields and
cyclone phase space diagrams show Earl becoming extratropical by 48
hours...and being absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone by 72
hours. The official intensity forecast has been adjusted downward
slightly in agreement with the icon consensus.

As I read it this am,
NE gusts to 65
storm surge @4 feet

Works for me.
Still time to run out and buy the wife a rake.

The blow job that never was

time to hype the crap out of every storm again.

Ought to be good this winter. 3" of snow will now be a storm of MEGA proportions

At some point int he last 15 years or so the stations have decided that weather sells. It is obnoxious how much time they spend on the weather and how much they hype storms.:yak5:

A dusting is one thing, this is something else. People will die, things will get broken. The more this moves east, the less of both will happen.

Newport

Today: Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely, mainly after 4pm. The rain could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 79. Southeast wind 6 to 11 mph increasing to between 13 and 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Tonight: Tropical storm conditions expected. Showers. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 68. North wind 29 to 39 mph decreasing to between 28 and 33 mph. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible.

Coulda ridden the motorcycle today. It cost me $6 to get to work instead of .40

big storm

go getcha bread.

Hi nightfighter....
 

Welcome to Burlington. I live right in town. if you need any suggestions on restaurants or anything just send me a pm.
Have a great time.

While she's cleaning up, you can head over to the yamaha dealer...

Myself, I just ordered a table saw and now I'm heading to Downes and Reader...:horse:

The first "band" of rain that is clearly waaaaaayyyyyy in advanc eof the actual storm camy through Hyannis about 11am. The hatches are battened and ready for tonight.

Oh yeah...the camper is packed and reayd becase the second they open Race Point I will be on my way. Right after a storm the fishing can be wicked good!!!!