The NWS track at 11 PM hasn't changed one iota. Same track as this morning. A bad one for us.

Attachment 48141

Still not great, but a little better for us. But--it's gonna suck for millions from NYC to DC.

Attachment 48142

NYC would be toast if that holds.

Lets see what the turn does.

That track is starting to look eerily familiar. I was only a year old when this one visited, but I saw the 8 mm movies that my dad took of Taylor's Point in Buzzards Bay.:eek5:

Attachment 48143

Carol/38 take your pick.

38 brought a 10' storm surge in Buzzards Bay, and Carol's was 8'. The old RR station in Wareham had both marks on one of its walls. I think there'll be lots of flooding along the South Coast and up into Buzzards Bay--we have new moon tides coming up, too.

This is going to be a major suck pill for a lot of people. Hopefully, it might have an effect on the thinking about shoreline development, but, probably not. :doh:

Edgartown Yacht Club was underwater to the 2nd floor....

Putting the Mako in one of your legal cohorts yard tomorrow. :hihi:

There is a big difference between a Cat 1/2 and a Cat 3 storm, but expect a lot of overwash, erosion and damage along the coast. Bob was a 2 over BI, then dropped to a 1. This should be similar intensity....

The 38 storm was worse than Carol. It brought a large ship in
and deposited in downtown Providence.
I was 15 when Carol hit and that was a wicked storm. Still remember the devestation. Loked like Hiroshima.
The microbursts and tornadoes these storms produce do unbelievable damage.

Getting worse, it looks like the low bringing these storms today and tomorrow is going to stall out just north of us...so Irene will run right into it. They seem pretty concerned about the chance for tornados in RI and SE Mass.
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Bob was a much more compact storm than this one, though. I was living on LI when it passed 60 miles to the west as a cat 2, and the leaves barely rustled. Even on the eastern side, hurricane force winds didn't reach too far from the eye wall.

very true. the size is remanicent of Carol, but the intensity is not.
going to be an event, but not the catasthophic event of Carol or 1938.

I saw that last night, likely tornadoes spawning on the eastern side of the storm.

Is it 2012 yet? Must be because I haven't seen Raven anywhere on the Hurricane threads so me thinks he's already burrowed in a mountain somewhere.

Interesting that the forecast tracks are creeping westward relative to where they were yesterday. I would have much preferred it had continued east.

Yes, either it tracks east and we get a direct hit or it continues west and we still get the wind. Doesn't look like there's a good scenario.
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I agree.

To rephrase - continued to trend east as in eye east of Nantucket.

It's a much better picture for us today, bearing in mind that storms don't always do what the "models" predict. If you take a look at yesterday's NOAA track, in addition to the present track being predicted to be a good bit west, the storm is predicted to weaken. Yesterday's models had it still a cat 1 storm in Maine. Today's have it possibly being "only" TS force when it reaches the CT coast. Whether that's due to the more inland track, or due to some upper atmosphere "sheer" that will start to break up the organization of the thing, I don't know, because clearly the water temps along the NJ coast are warm enough to sustain this as a cat 2 storm.

The trend in these storms of late (remember Earl last year?) is for them to drift eastwards off the track that the "models" predicted 24-48 hours beforehand. I don't think that we're out of the woods yet. However, unless these models are FUBAR, it will not drift far off to the east as Earl and prior storms did as they got closer to us.

[QUOTE=Mike P;882817]Whether that's due to the more inland track, or due to some upper atmosphere "sheer" that will start to break up the organization of the thing, I don't know, because clearly the water temps along the NJ coast are warm enough to sustain this as a cat 2 storm.[QUOTE]

It is probably a mix of interaction with the land on the left side, and shallower water. Hurricanes like warm, deep water (where the warm extends to a great depth) so it can keep the heat pump going. Generally thats around 80deg F to maintain-strengthen.....

Has anyone seen any predicted storm surge models yet? I'm about 14' up and < 1000 feet from the bay. Don't think I'll be waterfront by any stretch but an ounce of preparation....

I had read a potential for 10-15 feet but if the storm stays west I'd think long island would get it the worst.
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Moon tide + a foot or two do to wind. That leaves you maybe good to 7 or 8 foot surge. All depends on where and when it hits. Hopefully its low tide!

I agree, but historical models of 38 had lots of storm surge in the bay because the water couldn't get out.

I am so glad I didn't buy on Conimicut Point

It's actually because of the funnelling effect of the bay (less room for the water as you go North into the Bay). The same reason why the tidal range is higher in Providence than Newport

Yup, and it's the same situation in Buzzards Bay--very wide mouth, tiny neck (the Canal). In 54, Carol's storm surge almost wiped out the Taylor's Point area, where MMA sits today. I remember seeing dad's pictures of houses sitting on the RR tracks near Maco's. Swift's Beach is another bad area. In 38 a number of people were killed there, by the surge.

um... so what happens when 4 models take it west and 4 take it east and Boston and the lower cape is in the middle:skulz:

You do what professional weather forecasters seem to do when they're presented with that scenario--flip a coin. :rotf2:

I'm predicting that by the time it hits Cape Ann it will be a #1 with winds around 75 mph. Regardless of how powerful this storm is Cape Anners will be out driving along the shore watching the waves crashing along the rocky shore.

I was going to use "funneling effect" as that was how I understood from previous readings but didn't want to appear all nerdy :devil2: :buds:

I am a living walking nerd in a fishermans body. can't help it...

fyi, 2pm NOAA-GFS model (Wind speed; the maroon is 60kts )
This is 0000 UTC Monday (Sunday Evening Local)
Watch for an easterly drift again.....

Earl had us dead in his sights last year at this stage of the storm, and that one passed well to our east--I'm towards the eastern end of the Canal and we never saw wind gusts over 30 mph. I think the NWS had hurricane warnings posted for my area as little as 6 hours before Earl arrived, and it passed with TS warnings still in place.

UCT = GMT? There's a 4 hour lag between that and EDT, if so. That's 8 PM Sunday. Crap.

that's bad right?

she's coming back more to the east then?

Earl took a fairly hard left... not much shws Irene will do that...

ues UTC - GMT. High tide....

Who knows, at this point. The worst case scenario for RI/SE Mass, other than taking the eye wall dead in the kisser, is landfall around Watch Hill. Bob made landfall around Westport, and everything 40-50 miles to the east got creamed. This might have a bigger area of circulation than Bob. Pick your poison--do you want it going 50 miles east of the Cape, with TS storm force winds and up to 10" of rain on already saturated soil, causing trees to uproot? Or do you want it going 50 miles west, with hurricane force winds causing trees to snap?

Best case for us is it going up the Delaware River valley into NY around Binghampton. It needs a western track for that.

Damn. Not what I want to see.

I know, and there were one or two models showing that right hook about 40 hours ahead of it getting here. I don't see any model taking Irene that far east at this point :(

High tide. With that time and model that should have the strongest part of the storm pushing water up the funnel, at high Moon tide.

Nice.

Latest predicitions showing it to be a Cat one or TS by the time it gets here. Unless I'm missing something.

It's really still a crap shot 72 hours ahead of time. If it stays out over the water, it may not weaken to TS strength by the time it gets here.

?


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While we've had alot of model movement, GFS has stayed pretty much rock solid within 50-100 miles of its past tracks over the past 48 hours.

I'm a bit concerned with that as is RIRH.

If it stays east of hatteras its not going to degrade.

YAHTZEE!

I'll get my coat.

Maybe I'll catch the barrier closing. If I do I'll video it.