SHUT THE *&#@% UP!!!:fury:

They don't have a solid feel at all.

The latest set of 00Z (8 pm EDT) and 06Z (2 am EDT) computer model runs are in substantial agreement for the next 3 days, but Sandy's future is as clear as mud after that. Sandy will continue to punish the Bahamas today and Friday, as it tracks north to north-northwest. Sandy will probably come close enough to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday afternoon to spread heavy rains to the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina. However, the 4 - 6 day computer model forecasts for Sunday - Tuesday diverge widely. The GFS model, which has been one of our two top models for predicting hurricane tracks the past two years, has been very inconsistent with its handling of Sandy. Runs of the GFS model done 6 hours apart, at 8 pm last night and 2 am EDT this morning, were 300 miles apart in their position for Sandy on Tuesday, with the latest run predicting a landfall in Maine on Wednesday morning. On the other hand, the ECMWF model, our other top model for predicting hurricane tracks, has been very consistent in its handling of Sandy. The ECMWF model has Sandy hitting Delaware on Monday afternoon, the same forecast it has had for three consecutive runs. The other models tend to follow one extreme or the other, and NHC is picking a solution somewhere in the middle of these two extremes. An extra set of balloon-borne radiosondes is going to be launched at 2 pm EDT Thursday all across the U.S., which should help this evening's model runs. Extra radiosondes will be launched every 6 hours through Saturday afternoon.

Whenever the models cannot arrive at a firm solution it usually means its heading staright for us!! Scheduled for overnight minor heart surgery next thursday (like any heart surgery is minor??) . I hope there are no power failures by then. Man , i do not need this excitement. :(

Good luck Mike. I'll be praying for you whether the power goes out or not.

that range Paul is only 200 mi. the question is how fast to the west will Sandy be pulled by the negative tilting trough as the trough intensifies.
Sandy is NOT going far east the NAO block is holding it in to be consumed by the trough at some point.

Frankenstorm.

And yes, I need more feeling of Sandy, too

Let's not forget all the hype of that huge hurricane we got 2 years ago that ended up being a mild tropical storm.
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I rather listen to this than that other thing going on in the other forum

just wait until the snow starts, then I'll really get annoying


all kidding aside - I hope everyone is safe

The Dallas ice storms in February have been legendary Jim

yeah, but last about a day and no shoveling

been stuck twice in DFW unable to get to my hotel in a car that can drive on ice

Nice, however there are no striped bass in Texas
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Hybrids and they bite all year

Road trip
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hybrids my arse, we have stripers and hybrids 365 days a year and some get HUGE

Texas Top 50 Striped Bass

Mike, why the hell didn't you say something Friday. I could have explain in detail what they are going to do.

ME:

8 cauterizations
4 stents
1 Major MI
1 Quad Bypass.
Next time ask me.

They have great stripper clubs in Dallas and I am not talking fish.

:jump1:

I'd like to compare them Dallas to Dade County and Vegas clubs. The latter two are top billing

C'mon Jimmy, none of the fish on that list have even been caught in the last 10 years.

Good read Mr Z., Jimmy was trying to pull a fast one, again

Pretty amazing Left turn at hour +114 still waiting for the 18z models

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi...102512&set=All

so, how many fish that size have you caught in the last 10 years? :rotf2:

Im not sure. Boys count em'. Men catch em'.
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Noaa's Narragansett bay forecast for Monday has top winds @ 30 kts. Hmmm
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sure, in PVD

KBOX is being very conservative.

I don't like the last map I saw, has it coming onshore right over my head!!

You in ac?
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About 15 miles north, exactly where last years hurricane came ashore!

go check my house in OC please.

You're gonna get whacked

Maybe I'll unbox the generator :rotf2:

For us, ask the people in upstate NY and Vermont what they thought about it being a mild trop.

Very good point. Vermont had flooding of epic proportions
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My Uncle had sold his house and moved from VT back to RI in July. His just sold house was flooded out by the Battenkill a month later.

We'll likely not be in the heavy rain side of this storm - is that right Bill?

From what I've read it depends...but we're still going to get a lot of rain. It's a big storm that's going to spread and then camp out over us for a while.

Good thing is we're still down a bit on water levels so the system has more capacity.

I was up in VT just after the storm last year...they got pounded.

-spence

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif

5 day total described in lower left

Yes we did
I was fishing in NH that wknd and left early sunday am to come home. No problems on the way and I think I was home between 9 and 10am, straight to the couch for a nap. Kids woke me up a couple of hours later saying BHOP (Brandon House of Pizza) is in the middle of the street. No issues at my house as I live about 60 feet above a swamp in the Champlain Valley but I know many people who were stranded for a week and the effects are still ongoing in some towns. I don't want to see that again, and the biggest problem is many of the wiped out roads are in the rivers path at the bottom of valleys.

He was lucky, there was a house in Killington that was for sale and the closing was scheduled for that monday. No trace of the house was left.

Two years ago, it was Earl and it went out to sea. This baby isn't going out to sea. It's coming ashore somewhere between Delmarva and Rhody.

Repost...Now another GFS run just came out...this is amazing. Now they have the center moving further off shore then taking a left turn just south of LI...then moving counter clockwise back over NYC, New Jersey and Pennsylvania...then looping back over LI again...then over central Mass...I give up...never seen anything like this...guess we will just wait and see. Here is the animated link.

GFS : Animations

there are 4 model runs a day for the gfs.

here is the hpc's ensemble view showing it hitting NJ

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/na...y=5&fcolor=wbg

wind and surge on the way
hope they don't close the bridges
low lying areas being evacuated
yikes !!