I agree, but historical models of 38 had lots of storm surge in the bay because the water couldn't get out.

I am so glad I didn't buy on Conimicut Point

It's actually because of the funnelling effect of the bay (less room for the water as you go North into the Bay). The same reason why the tidal range is higher in Providence than Newport

Yup, and it's the same situation in Buzzards Bay--very wide mouth, tiny neck (the Canal). In 54, Carol's storm surge almost wiped out the Taylor's Point area, where MMA sits today. I remember seeing dad's pictures of houses sitting on the RR tracks near Maco's. Swift's Beach is another bad area. In 38 a number of people were killed there, by the surge.

um... so what happens when 4 models take it west and 4 take it east and Boston and the lower cape is in the middle:skulz:

You do what professional weather forecasters seem to do when they're presented with that scenario--flip a coin. :rotf2:

I'm predicting that by the time it hits Cape Ann it will be a #1 with winds around 75 mph. Regardless of how powerful this storm is Cape Anners will be out driving along the shore watching the waves crashing along the rocky shore.

I was going to use "funneling effect" as that was how I understood from previous readings but didn't want to appear all nerdy :devil2: :buds:

I am a living walking nerd in a fishermans body. can't help it...

fyi, 2pm NOAA-GFS model (Wind speed; the maroon is 60kts )
This is 0000 UTC Monday (Sunday Evening Local)
Watch for an easterly drift again.....

Earl had us dead in his sights last year at this stage of the storm, and that one passed well to our east--I'm towards the eastern end of the Canal and we never saw wind gusts over 30 mph. I think the NWS had hurricane warnings posted for my area as little as 6 hours before Earl arrived, and it passed with TS warnings still in place.

UCT = GMT? There's a 4 hour lag between that and EDT, if so. That's 8 PM Sunday. Crap.

that's bad right?

she's coming back more to the east then?

Earl took a fairly hard left... not much shws Irene will do that...

ues UTC - GMT. High tide....

Who knows, at this point. The worst case scenario for RI/SE Mass, other than taking the eye wall dead in the kisser, is landfall around Watch Hill. Bob made landfall around Westport, and everything 40-50 miles to the east got creamed. This might have a bigger area of circulation than Bob. Pick your poison--do you want it going 50 miles east of the Cape, with TS storm force winds and up to 10" of rain on already saturated soil, causing trees to uproot? Or do you want it going 50 miles west, with hurricane force winds causing trees to snap?

Best case for us is it going up the Delaware River valley into NY around Binghampton. It needs a western track for that.

Damn. Not what I want to see.

I know, and there were one or two models showing that right hook about 40 hours ahead of it getting here. I don't see any model taking Irene that far east at this point :(

High tide. With that time and model that should have the strongest part of the storm pushing water up the funnel, at high Moon tide.

Nice.

Latest predicitions showing it to be a Cat one or TS by the time it gets here. Unless I'm missing something.

It's really still a crap shot 72 hours ahead of time. If it stays out over the water, it may not weaken to TS strength by the time it gets here.

?


Biblical Proportions - YouTube

While we've had alot of model movement, GFS has stayed pretty much rock solid within 50-100 miles of its past tracks over the past 48 hours.

I'm a bit concerned with that as is RIRH.

If it stays east of hatteras its not going to degrade.

YAHTZEE!

I'll get my coat.

Maybe I'll catch the barrier closing. If I do I'll video it.

That's the way I see it. Cape is going to have a narly noreaster.

It's comin for me in maine
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

2 PM forecast models (despite the 5 PM header). Note the GFS model in red---it's moved east of where it was at 8 AM this morning.

Attachment 48157

I think people are going to see the more western track and think it's going to blow by...even if it hits NYC or CT dead on RI is likely to get pounded. New England just ain't that big and this storm is still pretty huge.

-spence

8 PM GFS model still has it going a little east. Even the western tracks don't help us very much, except to the extent they cause it to weaken as it passes up the eastern third of NJ.

Attachment 48158

Aw #^&#^&#^&#^&---all of the 5 AM models have it tracking farther east than yesterday's. :wall:

Yep, models are moving east....

The Weather Channel has to be using 3 day old models. :doh:

I like this feature, but I'm not liking the picture it's painting. This is Carol Redoux, except that it'll probably be a strong cat 1 and not a cat 3 when it gets here.

WunderMap Interactive Radar & Weather Stations : Weather Underground

I'm not buying the hype. Strong tropical storm... Mild damage. Some flooding. Nothing like the last 2 hurricanes we have had. Just my opinion...
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

Not buying the hype but trying to be reasonably prepared & prudent. Even have my beer* if it fizzles I can switch to my non-game-face.

* a nice Belgian White - did a functional verification and validation test last night and that was working as well.