That's the way I see it. Cape is going to have a narly noreaster.

It's comin for me in maine
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2 PM forecast models (despite the 5 PM header). Note the GFS model in red---it's moved east of where it was at 8 AM this morning.

Attachment 48157

I think people are going to see the more western track and think it's going to blow by...even if it hits NYC or CT dead on RI is likely to get pounded. New England just ain't that big and this storm is still pretty huge.

-spence

8 PM GFS model still has it going a little east. Even the western tracks don't help us very much, except to the extent they cause it to weaken as it passes up the eastern third of NJ.

Attachment 48158

Aw #^&#^&#^&#^&---all of the 5 AM models have it tracking farther east than yesterday's. :wall:

Yep, models are moving east....

The Weather Channel has to be using 3 day old models. :doh:

I like this feature, but I'm not liking the picture it's painting. This is Carol Redoux, except that it'll probably be a strong cat 1 and not a cat 3 when it gets here.

WunderMap Interactive Radar & Weather Stations : Weather Underground

I'm not buying the hype. Strong tropical storm... Mild damage. Some flooding. Nothing like the last 2 hurricanes we have had. Just my opinion...
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Not buying the hype but trying to be reasonably prepared & prudent. Even have my beer* if it fizzles I can switch to my non-game-face.

* a nice Belgian White - did a functional verification and validation test last night and that was working as well.

Could be--the 11 AM numbers are that max sustained winds dropped a bit, again, to 105 mph. A lot depends on whether it tracks north over land or water. All of the 8 AM models show a track across Hatteras and then out into the Atlantic again.

Who's coming over to help me take my awning down?
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Is this whats coming?


Family guy, Tricia Takanawa reports during a hurricane (HQ) - YouTube

Yeah your kayak might roll around the yard. :rotf2:

Maybe the gubbermint weather control jets will save us?

South Jersey's going to get whacked.

We'll have TS winds, storm surge and about 5 inches of rain Sat - Mon.

Expecting 8 up here in NW Maine, dam guy was lowering the lake, running 300 cfs for about 6 hours, triple normal flow,
pulling boats all day. I think one may get stuck on the back of the RAV

I'm going to throw a fresh chart on the barograph just for you :hihi:

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Instead of jumping to a 4 it dropped to a 2. That helps a lot. Be nice if NC takes it down to 1 before it rakes NJ.

I'll stop by next week if the bridge is still standing.

I believe they're expecting it to become a 3 again as it hits the gulf stream.

-spence

Running yesterday by the water I wondered how much those giant barges they have in the Sakonnet they're using to stage the steel tubs will move in a 70kt wind.

-spence

Maybe they'll correct for the poor alignment ;)

I wouldn't count on it. At 11, the eye had basically disappeared. As of almost 1 PM, it's re-forming very distinctly. And check how far north the outer bands are--off Delaware, and the storm is still several hundred miles south of the OBX. The wind is gonna blow for a loooonnnnggg time on Sunday. Even if it's only TS strength, some trees are coming down, especially when 4-6" of rain add to what's already a very saturated earth.

Attachment 48165

These things change fast. My house was at ground zero when Gloria came up into CT in 85. After hitting LI , she jumped up in forward speed and blew through in a couple of hours. It went from a forward speed of about 25 to almost 60 in half an hour. Still had a big tree from neighbor's yard come down , took out the power for a week and just missed crushing my car.
The track predictions are pretty iffy. Something can send the storms off at an unexpected angle. A big wide one like this still gets us , even with a major shift though.
At this point , a reduction in force looks like our best chance.

Prepare for the worst, hope for better. :)

Gloria blew through but wiped out Buzzards Bay.

Eye wall replacement under way. Strengthening is a definite possibility.

Huge wind field. HF winds 90 miles out from the eye, TS winds 290 miles. TS wind field almost 600 miles across.

I don't care how fast it blows through---it's gonna blow a long time.

Down south with current conditions (big size and slow speed) they're talking at least TS winds in some locations for a 24 hour period! :shocked:

At least the storm surge looks to be relatively mild.

-spence

Just noticed that the whole south shore from LI to the Cape has been upgraded to a hurricane warning.

-spence

It is because those areas can now be considered to experience those conditions within a set time frame - 36 hours I believe. It was going to happen - just a question of when.

Yes, but it also shows confidence the storm will remain pretty strong.

-spence

Spence.. this will be nothing like hurricane BOB or Gloria... They keep calling it a monster storm and that it is huge.. this is true. it is large, but its not as powerful as hurricanes of the past.

I think the point they're trying to make is that it will impact millions of people. Yes, it's not likely to give RI a dose of 80+ kt winds...but it's still going to cause some damage.

Remember as well that the impact south of us is still likely to be large, and the overall story is about the storm...not just RI.

That being said, my neighbor is boarding up his house tonight while I am not. The awning might still need to come down though...

-spence

definately take down the awning.. stash lawn furnature and cut griffens hair...;)

Hard to say for sure since we can't get a visual sat pic at night, but from the IR image, it looks like it could be getting a bit stronger. It has also begun a slight NE swing, still 200 miles or so south of Hatteras. It's possible it could come up this way over water for the whole ride, and that water is piss warm right now. It ran into some dry air today which caused the weakening. Pressure held steady most of the afternoon, and in fact, dropped one mb in the 8 PM readings.

The outer rain bands from this will be over MV and Nantucket overnight, and here on the Cape by mid-morning, from the looks of it. The hurricane warnings now extend to Sagamore Beach--right down the road from me. :rotf2:

Pretty solid core of circulation and a distinct eye. Look at how far those outer bands extend.

Attachment 48167

More east shifting. :hs:

We've gotten about as lucky as could be hoped for the last 24 hours. Soon it'll be time to ride it out. Good luck and God bless to everyone.

well.. i got a 12 pack of Bass Ale for tomorrow.. i cant wait for this to be over with.

Liquor store's closed tomorrow?

They are allowed to be open near me , whether they will or not is a different story. Of course just having had my heart jump started on Monday (back to normal) , liquor is not a high priority right now.

Wind has picked up down here and lights already flickering.