the Trump Phenomenon
 

his appeal is with the middle, the undecided, "moderates"... the folks that both sides pander to and beg to show up and vote AFTER gaining the nomination...the Conservative wing and party establishment can't stand him but will be dragged along eventually in opposition to Hill....he's doing it backwards and it's working so far...

http://www.nationalreview.com/articl...llar-coalition

Seems the Mr Ruffini who clearly isn't a moderate clearly has no true understanding of the term Moderate by some of his statements about those's in his own party who are moderate

But trumps still has not shown he can secure the independents in a general election? most can not vote in rep or dem primaries ...

“Would you describe yourself as liberal, conservative, or moderate?” Thus, by definition, “moderate” is merely a catch-all term for people who resist being put in a neat and tidy political box.
or But perhaps most of all it is a reflection of the fact that many people simply don’t think about politics in a particularly deep or coherent way.

the above ^^^ are the reason trump is leading his party very condescending

that's a good word :hihi:

Ruffini wrote only this

"Patrick Ruffini ‎@PatrickRuffini
We like to think of the big political divisions as right vs left, or right vs establishment.

Patrick Ruffini ‎@PatrickRuffini
I would argue there's a distinction that matters more, and that's between people who pay attention to politics and those who don't."


I don't know where you got the rest and I don't know that he's incorrect or disagrees with your last statement

A sad state of affairs... Just sad.
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we can hug on that:love:

http://youtu.be/x9Gj8npARTU
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So when exactly is Trump going to release his tax returns?

that would be fun...I suspect his response would be something like..."as soon as Mrs. Clinton releases..._____... oh, and by the way....it will be GREAT!"

his daughter is a hottie :btu:

Clinton already has.

And that qualifies him to be our president ?!?!?
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How about her "non profit "?
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I was thinking emails...or anything else that happened to come to his mind...he doesn't say much but he's pretty good at the verbal art of self-defense....:uhuh:

No but it does go in the plus column
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He's not going to be President. If it's him against her, she might run the table. It will be a rout of 1984-like proportions.

I get the anger, I say with no ambiguity that I can't stand Obama and they way he treats everone who disagrees with him. I get that Republicans want someone who will be willing to respond in kind when attacked (Bush 43, McCain, and Romney never did that, they didn't have it in them, and it didn't serve them well).

No President has thrown more cheap shots than Weird Harold (attacking the Supreme Court, during the State of the Union, when they are sitting right in front of you, and they don't have a chance to respond? There is no cheaper shot than that, there just isn't). I get the anger. What I don't get, is how you think that a productive channle for that anger, is voting for a guy who literally has no chance in the general. We are handing the presidency to the Dems, and quite possibly Congress as well. Because a Trump candidacy will result in massive liberal turnout to block him, and will incentivize people like me to stay home.

I will cast a write-in vote for Condaleeza Rice, I think.

And there's his appeal. He strikes back, he does so with common sense language.

Professor Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University, reports The Statesman, the campus newspaper at the public bastion on New York’s Long Island.

Specifically, Norpoth predicts that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of beating Bernie Sanders.

“Take it to the bank,” Norpoth confidently suggested.

Norpoth, a 1974 University of Michigan Ph.D. recipient who specializes in electoral behavior alignment, said his crystal ball also shows a 61-percent chance that the Republican nominee — Trump or not — will win the 2016 presidential election.

The political scientist also said there is virtually no way Trump could lose the Electoral College vote if he rakes in 54.7 percent — or more — of the vote.

Norpoth’s general election formula measures candidates’ performances in primaries in caucuses to gauge party unity and voter excitement. It also focuses on certain patterns in electoral cycles. One major assumption is that the party which has just held the presidency for two consecutive terms is less likely to win a third term.

The model has been correct for every election since 1912 except for the 1960 election — which pitted winner John F. Kennedy against loser Richard Nixon.

In total, Norpoth observed, his forecasting formula he has created has been correct 96.1 percent of the time since 1912.

The professor said he has used the model in recent times to predict Bill Clinton’s victories as well as George W. Bush’s and Barack Obama’s wins.

I agree with the first part....not so much the second part

Well what I meant by "common sense speak"...was that he doesn't try to sound like a Harvard alumni when he strikes back. He does so in a way that the average Joe understands exactly what he means, and can relate to.

I hope you are right about his chances of winning. Personally, I think he gets clobbered in the election for POTUS, and we'll be lucky to keep the Congress. On the Senate side, there are twice as many Republicans up for re-election as Democrats. The table is set for the Dems to take it back.

I hope I'm wrong. I don't think I am. Trump will squash enthisiasm on our side, and inject enthusiasm on their side.

not me...the Professor with a decent track record

U did not mention Cruz nor Rubio....Y?....when first reported by news media was about the three of them, Romney is sour because he was ask to submit his and he jumps on trump...Y did he not mention the three?.... of course media jumps on one too....:)

Romney did mention all three, then slammed Trump :hihi:

That is an understatement.....

Look Jeff,
More sexist comments
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I can't believe he's still doing it.

Believe it....
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Sorry 5 am i thought Ruffini was author of the article because his name was on the tweets .. thats My mistake I should have paid closer attention

I still feel the National review is blaming their Moderates for Donald's current standing

He's attracting our nation's best...

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/0...19777?lo=ap_e2

And the Democrats have the black panthers.
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