Danny Prediction Thread
 

OK all you amateur meteorologists... looks like we have a newly developed Tropical Storm- Danny. The early reports have this system hitting anywhere from the Carolinas to Canada. The possibility exists that a significant tropical storm or perhaps even a minimal hurricane could plow into Cape Cod by this weekend. Could this be another passing blow ala "Bill" or a complete miss or a dead-on bullseye hit? Whattaya all think? Will this be the storm that kicks the fall run into high gear or just weed everything up to unfishable conditions?

Let the predictions, the hype and the fun begin. :jump1:

Danny'll be barely a one bottle gale...:smokin:

Minor hurricane making landfall between newport and the canal !!! No work for me saturday is my prediction ( a la crack dream probally )

Complete and utter mayhem...dog and cats living together, pluggers and eelers joining in a group hug, boatmen fishing the surf...

i think some day that the really BIG one will change the whole topography of Cape Cod so bad that they will have to
change all the maps. :devil2:

I am with Cheferson with this one, it ain't no crack dream, maybe the not working part for him. But its a baby hurricane

I'm hoping it does nothing. It has the potential for me at least to completely ruin and an already abysmal season.

Living on LI sound, is it selfish to hope it takes out LI?

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3279/...33182f.jpg?v=0
the above size, should cover Danny...as of now...

Striper fishermen all over New England will gather plovers and keep them warm under lightbulbs in cardboard boxes lined with newspaper...until the danger has passed and they can be returned to their exclusive grounds.

RIRock's prediction sure to go wrong...

Strong tropical storm. Below Hurr. strength
Highest gust in RI will be on the Block at 50kt. Highest sustained in SoCo will be 30-40kts.
Depending on the track MV or ACK will hit 60kt gusts.

Minor shoreline erosion, 2-3ft of storm surge for one tidal cycle. Erosion will be a bit more than if this was the first storm of the season, but not drastic.

MISS ><>< :smash:

I predict more surfing at MTK.
And more surfcasters crying up a storm. :rotf2:

Just 1 nip or the whole lot?

I predict I do not care! Storm, no storm...it is what it is!

Believe it or not, I think I sold my boat. Good thing I kept all my waders, Korkers and suft rods.

Let me guess...you bought some new ping irons and a bunch of those naked lady tees...:laugha:

No, PI is the most impulsive man on earth :D

hey what's that honey bottle there?

Lessea - this should update the image from NOAA's NHC by refrehsing every few hours:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...59W5_NL_sm.gif

And the current path as of 4 PM Wednesday is attached so we can watch the changes.

Well I guess I won't be riding the motorcycle this weekend :wall:

totaly up to the "needs" of the individual... i have more than one custumer, who would call that portion.... "breakfast"...on any given day..

American Honey, by Wild Turkey, used to come in a nice package, when it was just called Wild Turkey Liqueur..
Wild Turkey based Honey Liqueur...
Great in Tea, I would imagine...:jump1:

i'll see if they sell nips... of it...

not much of a drinker anymore.... for health reasons

Suppose I should put gas in the chainsaw this time.

I predict it slams NC and creates a lotta rain for New England :biglaugh:

I dunno--the westernmost projected track would have it just brushing Hatteras. Hurricanes don't lose a lot of strength by just brushing the coast. It'll have plenty of time to regain strength over the Gulf Stream on its way up from there.

I can see the eye of this thing tracking right up the Canal.

I going to say a little left of that track giving the coastal areas the brunt of whatever wind he has. Gonna be fun to watch the next coupla days.

no

From my extensive past personal experiences with these storms I figure that I'll wind up good and screwed out of another productive weekend. Karl, why is your Wild Turkey pink on my 'puter?

I like the concept of the "Cone of Uncertainty."

It's also known as the cone of "we don't really have a %$%$%$%$ing clue even with the gazillion dollars worth of instruments we have" :rotf2:

All last week it was gale force winds on the Cape as Bill passed out to sea--and the freaking leaves on my trees weren't even rustling when it did pass.

Saturday: E wind 14 to 19 kt becoming NE 22 to 27 kt in the afternoon. Showers likely. The rain could be heavy at times. Seas 4 to 5 ft.

Saturday Night: N wind 33 to 38 kt becoming variable and less than 5 kt after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 49 kt. Showers likely. Seas around 4 ft.

Hmmm...the CraftyCast on this one has been updated as of 1 AM EST...

Current indications are that Danny will develop into a Two Bottle Gale by Saturday afternoon across most of Southeastern New England.

Hurricane Expert Mike P is predicting landfall in the Cape Cod area, hitting the Sagamore Bridge dead on the nuts late Saturday afternoon...however, the Cone of Uncertainty includes a broad area from Joe Lyons house to the west over to Karl F's counter at the liquor store to the east, where pre-storm predictions call for a customer surge 4 to 6 feet deep...:laughs:

Hey, I'm ready for it...got a new roof put on the house 2 weeks ago, a basement full of hootch, 2 spare D batteries and a can of Sterno...so I'm still all set from the hurricane preparedness drill for Hurricane Bill...:)

the "cone of uncertainty" prevails most deeply in the store, especially in the wine dept. ....
"which one should I choose?"...
i think that is the "cone's" residence..
:buds:
party on... Hurricane Party, that is...

A little easting in Danny this AM.
Good for us. Bad for Nova Scotia.


I suggest a 2000 Apollonio Copertino Divoto Riserva. A+ red

One of the local weathermissers was stating he thought it would shift a little west. Good to see the track indicating more easterly.

A little to the east

I predict that it is looking to trade yugio cards with everyone in new england.. :uhuh:

as of 11 AM
 

Copied from the Hurricane Center...

Danny has become a little better organized this morning. The
low-level circulation looks better defined than it did yesterday...
and the convection is closer to the center. That being said...the
center is still exposed...the convection has more of a linear
character than the curved bands characteristic of a tropical
cyclone...and the strongest winds are still well removed from the
center. The initial intensity is held at 50 kt pending the next
Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter mission at 18z...although recent
Quikscat data suggests this could be a little generous.

The exposed low-level center has been moving almost due westward for
the past few hours. It is unclear if this is representative of the
actual motion of Danny or a short-term trend. So...the initial
motion is an uncertain 310/11. Despite the problematic initial
motion...the track guidance models are in excellent agreement that
Danny should turn northward over the next 24-36 hr in advance of a
complex deep-layer trough moving into the eastern United States.
After that...the storm should accelerate northeastward into the
westerlies...passing near or over New England and the Canadian
Maritimes on its way into the North Atlantic. The
NAM...NOGAPS...and Canadian models are on the left side of the
guidance envelope... calling for the center to pass near Cape
Hatteras and then over New England. The GFS...GFDL...and HWRF are
on the right side...calling for the center to stay offshore until
it reaches Nova Scotia. The new forecast track is adjusted to the
left of the previous track for the first 48 hr based on the initial
position and motion...and it lies down the middle of the guidance
envelope. While the forecast track does not currently show Danny
making landfall in the United States...additional motion to the
left of the track could bring the center near or over the U. S.
Eastern Seaboard.
Danny is currently in an area of upper-level confluent flow
associated with the persistent cyclonic shear axis seen in water
vapor imagery. The large-scale models forecast this feature to be
replaced by an upper-level anticyclone during the next 24-30 hr...
and if this verifies it will give Danny its best chance to
strengthen. Based on this...the intensity forecast calls for Danny
to strengthen during the 24-48 hr period...with a peak intensity of
65 kt. The guidance agrees that Danny should start losing tropical
characteristics and intensity after 48 hr as it becomes embedded in
a strong baroclinic environment. Overall...the intensity forecast
is in best agreement with the intensity consensus...with the peak
intensity below that of the HWRF and GFDL models.