Future Weather: Irene
 

Latest computer predictions: AM hurricane guidance has Irene just south of N.Carolina Sat AM as Cat 2/3 storm, ready to run the coast. Long ways out but interesting track up the east coast, especially if it moves slightly farther east.

got to watch this one closely, I have a connecting flight in Miami friday morning!

What would a North Shore leg be without threat of a Hurricane?

This just might be interesting....
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More east in the forecast this AM.
Potential for a bounce off Hatteras then nailing us.

Repeat of BOB? Only land falling hurricane of 1991, direct hit on NE.

Similar is possible.

NOGAPS shows it taking a similar track except a little more East at Hatteras then running us down, GFS mean (consensus) shows Nantucket getting a direct hit.

General consensus shows somewhere between Patchogue LI and Nantucket. Basically nothing good.

This morning's model: http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/...9_ensmodel.gif

8am refresh looking a bit better, but its still a week away and the resolution is crap.

Showing staying offshore along the canyons which means lots of wind/rain/waves/surge.

This could change.

GFS doesn't make me happy.

another day of model verification will start to tell the tale. Watch the position of the two High's and the upper atmosphere trough over NE later in the week.....

May finally get some decent waves! :jump1:

looks better for my flight from miami.

6am = more left again.

Landfall still somewhere between LI and Nantucket.

Evacuations begin in NC as Irene strengthens - Weather - msnbc.com


I'm not loving this track, for where I am. :yak5:

11am model - a little more east - local stations saying though that it may be at Cat 2 when it comes to New England over the previous Cat 1

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/...1109_model.gif

I hear ya mike. Debating in whether to drop the tent trailer or risk it. Back section on BSP might be safe enough, wind being the only concern
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John, combine the models and they go straight up my yard. :hidin:

They were going straight through my yard.

With the harder Northeast quadrant, the more east the better.

NOAAs latest track has the eye pretty much going right up Narragansett Bay.

Attachment 48135

The other thing I'm not loving is their model that has it still a cat 1 a good bit inland, in Maine, on Monday.

It will be intersting the next couple of days, but as always, the track won't be close to 'locked in' until it crosses 40/70, at which point we'll be all sleeping Sunday night.....

If you enjoy major flooding, yes.

50miles either side of 95 calling for potentially 10"

The causeway down the street here will be underwater with boat like ornaments.

i,ll stay away up here in kennebago
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Plus this:

Forecast details this weekend... regardless of the track...it does appear the stage is being set for a predecessor heavy rain event sometime Saturday and especially Saturday night. Deep tropical moisture streaming well in advance of Irene will interact with a middle level trough. This has the potential to produce heavy rain and flooding ahead of Irene into early Sunday morning. :eek:

from nws taunton

well #^&#^&#^&#^&
2pm models have tightened up on the south coast/south county again.

GFS has crept left again along with NOGAPS

not liking this at all

Yeah, I saw that. Guess I should buy some rope and replace what I tied the grill down with last year when Earl was making noises, and maybe truck on up to my sister's in RI and reclaim my chain saw. I think I have some 2-cycle pre-mix in the shed, still. :grins:

I'm seeing a great weather window for Sat morning tuna!!!

Too many models put Truro on the dangerous right-side of the storm. This does not make me happy. However, I am wondering which beach I'm going to fish on Saturday. :) :fishin:

5pm is a whole lot more of the same.

horseneck road along the water will disappear.

also possible cat4 in the next 12 hours.

looks like it'll hold cat 2 just south of us saturday.

High tide in NB @ 1920 Sunday

So are you saying that I shouldn't head down to my friends beach house on West Island this weekend?

So what casts best into a 100mph wind? Im thinking loaded bottle Darter?
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crap....what the hell, do i still have to payback the 8k, housing stimulus if the house is gone...?..

What did you guys do for bob, I was in upstate NY, and only 14 at the time.

Drove around in the truck with brother dragging trees out of the street.

Bring your floaties.
And a chainsaw.

And about 30 gallons of gas.

Hope so :grins:

I don't see the big shift west that some guys seem to be talking about :huh:

Attachment 48139

There hasn't been one, not sure what crack the local news is smoking.

edit: also weather channel.
they were just going on about how GFS shows it hitting hatteras, GFS/GFS ensemble have it running about 50-100 miles offshore hatteras.

crack poureth over

Yeh, I just saw that bit. Plus we now have the possibilities of Tornadoes on the east side of the storm. Any check what calendar year this is :huh:? 2012?

But someone alluded earlier that it is always safe where Jim Cantore shows up and supposedly he's doing PVD - so I'm safe!