This Market...
 

Its like Jamaican limbo.... how low can you go?

Killing me watching it going up 1000, down 2000, up a 1000, down a 1000; obviously hindsight is 20/20, but boy I wish I'd pulled out of the stock market earlier. I'm not heavily invested in stocks but enough to make it sting, I've watch two years of gains evaporate in my overall portfolio, it will take a really robust rebound after and several years likely to recover. Thankfully I'm retired and will be fine even with the pain, but man I can't imagine the hurt some of the younger investors are feeling now, or someone planning on retiring in a couple years.

Money can't buy you happiness, but it can make you crazy if you let it.

I’ve been watching this for a while: the Dow Jones fell today below its close on the day Trump* took office (19,871).

It’s always dumb to credit or fault a president as if stock market returns are theirs to control, but if a president is dumb enough to do that for himself, the rule is waived.

Ford, GM, Fiat Chrysler to shut U.S. production.

theres no hurt for younger investors decades away from needing the retirement money. only opportunity. tremendous opportunity. If my wife was working (she's in school instead), I'd take out a $50,000 mortgage right this second and out it in an S&P 500 index fund.

You haven't lost a nickel, until you sell. This is when you buy, not when you sell.
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Ford and GM are shutting production. What you may not have heard, is that the shutdown isn't because of a lack of demand. It's until March 30, and it's being done to help prevent the spread of the virus. It's not because Trump tanked the economy, and only a deranged POS would suggest otherwise.

Also, if a president helps grow the economy, it doesn't necessarily mean he's responsible for the inevitable correction. We know what Trump did to grow the economy - tax cuts, regulations, boosting confidence. None of those policies, are causing this plummet. A virus that originated in China caused this.

The people with Trump* defense syndrome are always on guard.
The only thing I said about him was the market is the same today as when he was inaugurated.
I think that's interesting.
I think it is far from done, headed below election day in 16.
Feel free to buy
I'd recommend vix
No promises though

I agree, I bought a chunk late last week and pulled half of it out on Monday after I saw what happened over the weekend

the other half is falling fast...

I thought we hit bottom :)

Since you brought up the Stable Genius
If you look at the KOPSI in the past month it has dropped from 2200-1600 while the Dow has gone from 30K-20K.
Perhaps that is the difference between being aggressive about a pandemic vs trying to downplay it.

Cut the #^&#^&#^&#^& Pete...

nobody knows where or when the bottom is, don’t try to be perfect. if you have a decent time horizon, you’ll do fine.
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That's also what Larry Kudlow said several times, buy the dip..........
At 27K, 26K, 20K........
However no bear market has ended in a month, ever......

Between 1926 and 2017, there have been eight bear markets, ranging in length from six months to 2.8 years, and in severity from an 83.4% drop in the S&P 500 to a decline of 21.8%

This one has totally unknown components that have no historical precedent.

The Imperial College report that I posted in another thread says it is likely that absent a miracle the Covid-19 virus will require social isolation of populations and therefore disrupt our economy for a year and a half.
I am hoping for a miracle but unwilling to bet the farm on one.

I think a year and a half is extreme... I hate to be crass, but I feel like we’re looking at 2 months before people will start to weigh what’s worse:

The crumbling of modern society as we know it

Or

People dying from coronavirus

I don’t look forward to the ramifications of either of those decisions
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Bailed out 2 years ago. Everything we have is in CDs and R/E

Please tell us who said it would be over in a month? Who? Who are you responding to? No sane financial advisor ever told anyone to buy stocks on the dip and use the profits to pay your mortgage at the end of the month. Your time horizon needs to me measured in years, not months.

If you bought an S&P 500 index fund in any of those bear markets, there was time within the next few years that you did terrific.

But you know more about finance than Larry Kudlow, obviously. He's associated with Trump, so he can't be competent and dedicated, it's not humanly possible. He has to be an idiot and a crook.

YOU are the one acting as if a month matters, by stating (correctly) that if you bought when the DJIA was at 25k, you are now down. It doesn't matter how you're doing 7 days later. It matters how you did from the time you bought, to the time you sold.

Even professionals who try to time the bottom, usually can't do it, and often they wait too long and get back in when things have rebounded higher. You don't want to miss much of the rebound, because that's the opportunity.

If you buy a good mutual fund today with money you won't need for a few years, there's a 95% chance you'll make a killing. Ask anyone who bought in late 2008 or early 2009.

No one here saw you make a post about the economy until 10 days ago. You are giddy about this because you see the political opportunity. And you're right to be giddy about it from that perspective, as Biden had little chance if the DJIA was at 30,000 and more importantly, if unemployment was below 4%. The level of the DJIA means absolutely nothing to anyone who isn't selling that day. Unemployment levels, matter a lot more.

You've never posted once about the benefits of low unemployment during this administration. Not once. If it skyrockets, how long before you post? The first report that unemployment shot up (and it's likely coming soon, could easily be over 10% soon), you'll quickly ejaculate and then post about it.

No #^&#^&#^&#^& sherlock
What's your point?
I said no bear market has ever been over in a month, are you saying one has?
If you have a limited amount of capital and want to limit your risk, wait.
If you think this market has bottomed out or is even close, feel free to buy now.
All I said is that you have time, no bear has ended in a month.
You claimed that you would borrow to buy, odd that you haven't, all hat no cattle, full of baloney as usual.
Numbers matter and buying an index fund when the dow is at 15K is better than 29K
And just think, even if you bought in 07 you are better off today.

Glad you can read minds and decide my motives, your super powers are amazing. I leave the praising of Trump* to you, you are relentless in your fealty.

Senator Burrs comments from 3 weeks ago to a private meeting about the expected ramifications of coronavirus show just how much this administration has been hiding from the public what will be known to history as the Trump* plague.

The markets haven't operated in the real world in a long time , companies with crazy valuations, even with no profit, investors up up and away mentality, taking risks Thinking Trump will prop up the market , and save them... these are the same people who are tanking the markets, running for the hills while hoping for a bail out






Yet in Trump town his supports change gears again

The end game was always to crash our economy as it was what they think will hurt Trump. Sorry folks but it just gives me more resolve to reelect him!

Don’t get discouraged by his supporters Wayne. You are better than that. Stick to your guns and try to understand that there will always be differing opinions. That is what makes us the greatest country in the world.
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My god man, stick to things you know. A month ago, the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 was not anywhere near crazy. It wasn't fake or speculative like the tech boom.

Whose end game was to crash the economy, exactly? Trumps?

Follow the bouncing ball... Democrats of course , according to Trump supporters

And if you think the markets been run realistically, it's clear you should take your own advice

"I said no bear market has ever been over in a month"

Why did you say that? WHo needed to be told that?

You also criticized Kudlow foe telling people to buy on the dip. When the DJIA gets back to 29,000, people who bought when he said will make a good return.

"If you have a limited amount of capital and want to limit your risk, wait."

Wrong. Wrong, wrong, wrong. Because hw can you possibly know how long to wait? Because it could rebound, and you'd miss out. If you want to limit your risk, "you use dollar cost averaging", which means you out in a little now, a little later, a little after that.

"If you think this market has bottomed out or is even close, feel free to buy now"

I have absolutely no clue when it's bottoming out, so I'm buying every time it goes down 5%.

Let's attack this from a different angle, Pete. How will you know when it's bottomed out, how will you know when it's time to get back in? When Paul Krugman says so?

"All I said is that you have time, no bear has ended in a month"

Your dimentia is worse than I suspected, because you said more than that. You criticized Kudlow.

You said the market was crazy overpriced. Please justify that. Because the P/E ratio for the S&P 500 wasn't crazy high.

When unemployment is low and companies can avoid useless regulations and innovate, guess what? The market will grow. I'm sorry if that spits in the face of liberalism, but it's the way it is.

Interesting stance given the state of things today...

No I said some companies were overvalued even if they made no profit

Removing regulations is a red herring like trickle down economics even most optimistic models it take 5-10 years for business to see an affect of deregulation

Dont your arms ever get tired of waving pom poms all day ...

According to a research note from Bank of America Securities, it has taken 1,100 trading days on average to regain the territory lost during a bear market.

There are 252 trading days in a year, so that means the average time to get back to where we were is 4.4 years.

I am glad I live in reality, not A Trump driven reality :buds:

If any of you knew a good economist then your money would have been moved 3 weeks ago.
👌
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Sorry, obviously the market also needs people out spending money, that's a given. That's all that's missing right now, and it's not missing because of anything that Trump or Obama did or didn't do.

My other point is that our stock market was not insanely overpriced when the DJIA was at 29,000. All you have to do, is look at the P/E ratios or any other valuation. Not saying it was undervalued, but when the DJIA was at its peak, Warren Buffet said he thought the S&P 500 was a terrific bet if you had 5-10 years time. But what does he know?

The tech bubble was irrational when it burst. The housing bubble was irrational when it burst. Our economy, in a macro sense, was not an irrational bubble waiting to burst when this hit. Anyone who says otherwise, is lying because they have a political agenda. It was a very, very strong and robust economy.

"I said some companies were overvalued even if they made no profit "

You did say that (which is correct by the way), but you said a lot more than that.

Here's what you said: "The markets haven't operated in the real world in a long time"

'The markets' is a very general term, you weren't talking about a select number of companies. The US market wasn't irrationally high. Trump haters desperately want people to think it was, because the alternative - that Trumps policies helped improve the economy to drive the growth - is too awful to even contemplate. But that's what happened. The February jobs report that came out a few days before this, absolutely crushed expectations.

"Removing regulations is a red herring like trickle down economics even most optimistic models it take 5-10 years for business to see an affect of deregulation "

CEOs are saying the deregulations helped. Again, you know better. Removing regulations can instill confidence that things will get better, even if the effect isn't in the balance sheets for some time.

"Dont your arms ever get tired of waving pom poms all day "

You ever get tired of lying? I criticize him all the time. But not when he doesn't deserve it.

Right, a labor union where your "reality" consists of confiscating money from your customers whether they feel like paying you or not, guaranteed raises, and rich pensions which someone else picks up most of the tab for. Yes sir, that's "reality"

You want to talk about something irrational that's not sustainable? Watch your pension fund for the next 20 years.

Can facts lie and have a political agenda?

PE was over 20 at end of 2019 while historical mean was about 16.


Based on the latest S&P 500 monthly data, the market is overvalued somewhere in the range of 87% to 155%, depending on the indicator, up from 82% to 148% the previous month.
Feb 6, 2020

I made enough day trading today to pay 3 months rent :)
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