Merrill Lynch: "We're In A Recession"
 

:soon::yak5:

By definition, doesn't a recession only occur after two negative consecutive quarters of GDP? Which has not happened...

Has anybody seen their order pipeline contractiing? We have a 3 mos backlog.

Is consumer spending down?

Anyone getting laid off locally in recent weeks?

The only things that continues to loom is the 'sub-prime', housing and oil prices.

Anything else I miss?

that's the textbook definition.

do you believe in the published nominal GDP figures?

do you believe in the published CPI numbers?

after factoring in "true" inflation, real GDP is closer to negative than you think.

The first real evidence of contraction was last week's ISM report, which showed contraction.

It is sort of joke what's not considered into CPI, and I understand how the numbers are often not reality. I just felt for ML to come out and say that was sort of bold.

Stop talking crazy. If you use "that" definition, then everyone would report that situation, if it ever happened, at the same time (i.e. once the numbers were reported). The way to make money in the new biz is to get the scoop, so you need to be a little creative.

If ML thinks 5% unemployment = a recession, and you're a news organization backing a "change" candidate (let's assume that for a second), then this is a perfect story to run on the eve of the the most important primary of the election. If you're not backing said candidate, you still get your scoop.

I don't think everything is perfect with the economy, but we're not in a recession.

I think there is a downturn. I do not believe, and don't want to believe it is a recession. 2001-2003 was a painful time for me.

Lets click our heels together and 'There is no recession, I wish I was fishing' three times.

I like this guy!

Last week's unemployment figures rocked the markets.

Anyhoo, recessions aren't measured by unemployment. they're measured by back to back quarters of GDP declines.

You should know that the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) "manufactures" a lot of jobs with "estimates" of job growth. Don't believe me?

http://www.shadowstats.com

and its an election year...statistics don`t lie but people with an agenda using them do :usd:...

I`m not up on all the details nor do I have any specific knowledge of all this but was`nt there a reliable observer who stated what we have coming down the road would be worse than the Great Depression?

After I retire please!!

I thought we been in a reccesion for quite a while now

I was thinking the same thing. Wonder what tipped off ML.

Yes, 5% "shocked" a lot of people who were expecting the number to move to 4.8%.

5% is still pretty low in the grand scheme of things, and the unemployment rate is not the biggest problem with our economy, it's the lack of self control of our fellow citicens who bought houses they can't afford and what that could do to consumer spending. Said economic issue will only be eclipsed in the next few years by the health crisis turned economic crisis that is being caused by - yep, a lack of self control.

Just because the box of Twinkies costs $.99 doesn't mean you have to eat them, and just because the bank is willing to write a loan doesn't mean you need to buy the house.

I'm not saying we may not end up in a recession, we're just not there yet - at least using traditional analytical methods.

I love hearing how the GDP, PPI, CPI, unemployment are all bogus. Were they also bogus during Bill's bubble or just now?

Goldman joined the ML crowd today in declaring the 'R' word.

Goldman jumps on the recession bandwagon.

Nothey didn't. Goldman predicted the US would slip into recession in 08, they didn't say we were in one right now.

one things for sure, my hairline is continuing its reccesion.

Where a hat on windy days!!!

i've got a copy of the first call note / report in my hands right now.

Quote:

"The latest data suggest that recession has now arrived, or will very shortly."

If your in the middle class, YOU are in a recession. If your in the lower class making less money and own a house right now, YOU are probably in a depression..

I really dont give too hoots how the stock market is doing when i look at the economy to guage how i feel MY business will do in the upcoming months.. High oil prices, high food prices, paired with many in a mortgage crunch will mean to ME that my business will not thrive anytime soon.

I would like to see the figures of personal debt and personal savings.. how many 'normal average income' people are able to save 1/4 of their income in todays economy?? not as many as a few years ago..

there is Nebe's view on things.. :hihi:

well, apart from yesterday, has anyone been paying attention to how the market has been tanking? :devil2: i've been yammering about it for say, the past six months or so. :hihi:

just picked up another first call note dated 1/9/08 from the goldman sachs automotive (stock) analyst:

:buds:

good thing you have that side business as a man-whore for elderly women....

I think the economy is unfortunately not front page (like Iraq) b/c of the primary popularity contest that really doesn't cover issues. Ben, I really dont think a lot of people think about all of the aforementioned factors... except the guys who are planning retirement in my department, I know they watch the market daily and decide if they want to work another year or not!!!

i guess it goes to financial literacy all around. the stock market is boring, but it is also considered a leading indicator as to how the economy is performing.

the market has been anticipating a recession for some time. housing and financials getting whacked from subprime, industrials getting whacked, sector rotation into consumer staples and utilities (which tend to weather recessions okay). the market provides clues. :humpty:

Hey count me in as well among the financial illiterates. what I know about financial/economic voodoo wouldn't fit in a shoe... but I try to usually know what oil is +/- a few bucks a barrel and the stock market +/- 500points or so. One is steadily going up, one is steadily going down... that cant be good.... :behead:

I was a little vague. I do give a hoot about the market. My point is that it is obvious to me and has been for a long long time that our 'nation' is suffering. The reason i say i dont give a hoot is that one can not judge the state of our national economy from just looking at nasdaq or the DOW... Look at the big picture. foreclosures every day.. manufacturing jobs being shipped over seas at record pace..
look at the value of the dollar??

90% of americans are more concerned about LOST and are we going to get to watch a full season because of the writers strike than what the economy is doing.. And, those who are making billions right now are loving every second of it.

I completely agree that people are more concerned about American Idol than the next president, the war on terror, and the economy combined. I also think that people need to hold their chin up and realize the economy is supposed to go through peaks and troughs.

I'm sick of everyone ragging on America - how everything is soo bad, our president is soo bad, the war is soo bad, and the economy is soo bad. We are simultaneously the richest and least happy society on the planet. Guys take a friggin anti-depressant then get in their BMW and go to work. Suck it the eff up. People in Africa are getting tourtured and killed by the truckload, and we're worried about 5% unemployment. Worst healtcare in the world now too - thanks for waving the flag yet again CNN. How about another story on the 10 easiest ways to attack the US? If I ever read a news story about how great America is I think I'll have a heart attack.

So we may have a recession in '08 - we will be better for it in the long run. We've all lived through recessions before, and this won't be the last. Maybe people will think twice before buying a house that will cost more they can afford, maybe they will start making coffee agian, maybe people will rediscover tap water. Maybe the lessons learned will actually make the economy stronger in 5 years.

we may be the richest country, but but the way I see it, most americans are getting poorer at every turn..higher living expenses equal smaller savings. The president is bad and the war right now that is costing us billions of dollars daily is all based on a series of fabricated lies to coerce americans by scare tactics that we had to go in there.. The contracors and corperations who are making those billions of dollars are mighty happy. Durring the years that Bush has served in office each and every american citizen has been givin aprox 30,000 in national debt, while he slashed taxes to the rich..

yeah, Id say things suck right now. The people that i notice who are saying things are good are 'the rich', 'the religious' and frankly 'the ignorant'

I knew this country was screwed when i watched Bush give a talk to a Ford assembly plant full of workers. he was quesitoned why america was so pro-active on exporting manufacturing to china and Bush piped up saying he was 'working on that' and that it is clear that 'we have to make it better to 'do business in america'. The whole plant went wild with applause.. these people were aplauding the very reason that they are loosing thier jobs.. doing business better means higher profits and higher profits mean finding the cheaper labor.. China.

ugg.

actually, many of the methodologies for calculating figures such as unemployment changed during blow-job bill's watch.

but's it's not all bush's fault. globalization was well under way before bush took office. remember what bill clinton said about china while he was in office?

yes, fault the current president for ballooning gov't spending (iraq war, letting pork slip through, cutting taxes at a bad time).

but we have to fault ourselves if we choose to buy plasma t.v.'s made in china on our friggin credit cards.

i blame a lot of our current situation on alan greenspan, who, by printing money by the f*ckload, encouraged an economy based on consumer consumption and asset inflation, as opposed to one that should focus more on savings and capital investment.

i feel sorry for the current fed chairman ben bernanke. if he chooses to be courageous and raise interest rates (that is, cut the money supply), he guarantees a steep recession, maybe even a depression. if he continues to have an easy money policy, the dollar continues to decline, and inflation runs away. short term, stagflation. longer term, corrosive deflation.

i feel sorry for the next president who has to lead a country in this muck. he'll get the blame, even though alan greenspan and the american consumer deserves most of it.