Friday-Sunday is looking good
 

Greenland Blocking high is in place

We could get another all snow storm over Sat-Sat stay tuned. and let's buy all the beer now that it's not taxed - twice!

they haven't been saying anything about it on the news?

yeah nuttin but flurries they report.....

i told the wife i have a special weather wizard friend

much much better than the old Indian down the road

GIVEN ITS ONLY MON AND ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT IS STILL ABOUT 4-5 DAYS
AWAY WILL RESIST THE LIKELY POPS FROM MAVMOS AND CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS FRI-SAT. SO IN A NUTSHELL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR A
STRONG COASTAL OR OCEAN STORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE NE COAST BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS LOW ON POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS AND DETAILS. AS WAS
THE CASE WITH THE 12/26-27 SNOWSTORM WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AS
THE EVENT NEARS AND THE MODELS CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. THUS PATIENCE
AND STAY TUNED!

Thanks, keep us posted Bill

I think this shirt says all it about weather forecasting.:rotf2:

I need to go to Vegas

pops ?

POSSIBLY MOVING
OFFSHORE JUST AS A POTENTIALLY STRONG COASTAL OR OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MAY TAKE SHAPE. MOST MODELS SIGNALING A STRONG STORM
DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT...PASSING WELL SE OF NANTUCKET SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS LOW MAY ACTUALLY SLOW DOWN...IF THE UPPER LEVEL
VORTEX CAPTURES IT.ONE THEME THAT CONTINUES THIS MORNING IS THAT THERE IS A GOOD
LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE QUESTION
IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL FALL...WHICH IS ALL IMPORTANT AS IT APPEARS
THAT THE MAJORITY OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE SNOW THOUGH THERE MAY BE
SOME MIXTURE OR CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY
POPS FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT ALONG SECTIONS OF THE S COAST /FOR NOW/
ON FRIDAY...SHIFTING TO THE E COAST BY SATURDAY. DID NOT CARRY QUITE
AS MUCH QPF AS PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT THIS ALONG WITH MANY OTHER
DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY...AS
WE HAVE SEVERAL MORE MODEL RUNS TO EXAMINE PRIOR TO FRIDAY. THE LAST
SEVERAL EVENTS THIS WINTER HAVE SHOWN US THAT...IF THIS LOW BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED...THE SYSTEM/S TRACK COULD SHIFT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS FOR MORE CONSENSUS. STAY TUNED
FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

I'll know better tonight after I read the HPC discussions of the 12z runs this if from the 06z runs

Is this your profession or is it a hobby? You seem very knowledgeable with your weather posts. Impressive!

I'll know better tonight after I read the HPC discussions of the 12z runs this if from the 06z runs[/QUOTE] :smash:

Sounds like this to me Bill,
I'll know better tonight after I read the "Bla bla" of the "Bla bla" runs this if from the "Bla bla" runs.

It's just because he has no life

Neither do you

:smash:

Sounds like this to me Bill,
I'll know better tonight after I read the "Bla bla" of the "Bla bla" runs this if from the "Bla bla" runs.[/QUOTE]

Well I guess I won't say

:smash:

Sounds like this to me Bill,
I'll know better tonight after I read the "Bla bla" of the "Bla bla" runs this if from the "Bla bla" runs.[/QUOTE]

And I will also say that I am employed doing this for our Armed Forces.

You?

Is that the best you can come back with?

It warrants nothing more for a man that has nothing

Did we open a "Girls" forum.....cause this has all the makin's of a good ole' fashioned cat fight!!! Meow!!!:jump1:

Yes, all your whining started it.

Well I guess I won't say[/QUOTE]

Nerd

6 hour traffic jams, I15 was closed, it snowed an inch there.

girly girls

Nerd[/QUOTE]

Yup that me, I read the models review the discussions, whack out a few numbers and argue with the rest of the nerds about it until the next round of models come out.

US models are run by the HPC 4 times a day, European and Canadian models are run twice a day.
There are 6 major weather models in play this time of year. Each has it's own ensemble of up to 8 variations depending on height in the air column being modeled and the type of output, barometric pressure, precip, wind being modeled.

Other localized models or specific models for the Air Force or Navy are also available


All of the above is Unclassified data so all of us can look at it at any time. Pretty cool

I looked at the charts and will leave it up to the experts to decipher. I can handle real-time forecast (I look out the window :uhuh:) but 2-5 days out..no clue. Most of the trained forecasters only have a clue 50% of the time.:rotf2:

No that's the Grumpy Old Fart Forum, where you post all the time

its been upgraded to a possible
 

stalled storm off the coast...

i saw snow clouds cruising by this afternoon :point: a prelude.

.........i don't need a weather man to tell me

..........i not only can smell it

but every bone injury i ever had will tell me quite clearly
when precipitation is expected in any form

Geez, sorry for the post Striperman36 these guy are tough!

either way the storm falls I'll be drinking:buds:

Let me know when, I gotta get outta here.

That's totally true, it's so fluid no one truly knows until it's gone.
Like the last storm.

This winter is very unusual from a weather pattern perspective in NE.

I think it's because it's an El Nino? this year