Future Weather: Irene
 

Latest computer predictions: AM hurricane guidance has Irene just south of N.Carolina Sat AM as Cat 2/3 storm, ready to run the coast. Long ways out but interesting track up the east coast, especially if it moves slightly farther east.

got to watch this one closely, I have a connecting flight in Miami friday morning!

What would a North Shore leg be without threat of a Hurricane?

This just might be interesting....
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

More east in the forecast this AM.
Potential for a bounce off Hatteras then nailing us.

Repeat of BOB? Only land falling hurricane of 1991, direct hit on NE.

Similar is possible.

NOGAPS shows it taking a similar track except a little more East at Hatteras then running us down, GFS mean (consensus) shows Nantucket getting a direct hit.

General consensus shows somewhere between Patchogue LI and Nantucket. Basically nothing good.

This morning's model: http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/...9_ensmodel.gif

8am refresh looking a bit better, but its still a week away and the resolution is crap.

Showing staying offshore along the canyons which means lots of wind/rain/waves/surge.

This could change.

GFS doesn't make me happy.

another day of model verification will start to tell the tale. Watch the position of the two High's and the upper atmosphere trough over NE later in the week.....

May finally get some decent waves! :jump1:

looks better for my flight from miami.

6am = more left again.

Landfall still somewhere between LI and Nantucket.

Evacuations begin in NC as Irene strengthens - Weather - msnbc.com


I'm not loving this track, for where I am. :yak5:

11am model - a little more east - local stations saying though that it may be at Cat 2 when it comes to New England over the previous Cat 1

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/...1109_model.gif

I hear ya mike. Debating in whether to drop the tent trailer or risk it. Back section on BSP might be safe enough, wind being the only concern
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

John, combine the models and they go straight up my yard. :hidin:

They were going straight through my yard.

With the harder Northeast quadrant, the more east the better.

NOAAs latest track has the eye pretty much going right up Narragansett Bay.

Attachment 48135

The other thing I'm not loving is their model that has it still a cat 1 a good bit inland, in Maine, on Monday.

It will be intersting the next couple of days, but as always, the track won't be close to 'locked in' until it crosses 40/70, at which point we'll be all sleeping Sunday night.....

If you enjoy major flooding, yes.

50miles either side of 95 calling for potentially 10"

The causeway down the street here will be underwater with boat like ornaments.

i,ll stay away up here in kennebago
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Plus this:

Forecast details this weekend... regardless of the track...it does appear the stage is being set for a predecessor heavy rain event sometime Saturday and especially Saturday night. Deep tropical moisture streaming well in advance of Irene will interact with a middle level trough. This has the potential to produce heavy rain and flooding ahead of Irene into early Sunday morning. :eek:

from nws taunton

well #^&#^&#^&#^&
2pm models have tightened up on the south coast/south county again.

GFS has crept left again along with NOGAPS

not liking this at all

Yeah, I saw that. Guess I should buy some rope and replace what I tied the grill down with last year when Earl was making noises, and maybe truck on up to my sister's in RI and reclaim my chain saw. I think I have some 2-cycle pre-mix in the shed, still. :grins:

I'm seeing a great weather window for Sat morning tuna!!!

Too many models put Truro on the dangerous right-side of the storm. This does not make me happy. However, I am wondering which beach I'm going to fish on Saturday. :) :fishin: