Originally Posted by Pete F. (Post 1156352)

Trumps tweet on the invasion of Ukraine two+ years ago

Aug 1, 2016 07:50:32 AM When I said in an interview that Putin is "not going into Ukraine, you can mark it down," I am saying if I am President. Already in Crimea! [Twitter for Android]

What will you do now, Don?

I think he is finding out that tweeting is easier than governing.

Originally Posted by detbuch (Post 1156356)

I think you're right. Tweeting is easier. I do hope that Trump doesn't think that the Ukraine crisis is totally up to him to do something. I have considered it before to be a European matter, and if Europe gets it's chit together, which it may not be capable of doing, it should be able solve the problem. We can be part of that. But a strong united Europe, even without our help, would be enough to direct the dispute into a peaceful resolution. I suspect that Europe is too self-interested to really care about the Ukraine if it meant it had to expend much blood and treasure, and would rather that the U.S. would shoulder the burden.

Putin counts on European weakness and lack of will. So that throws the problem in our lap. Which is wrong. If Europe wants Trump's help, it will have to be nicer to him. And more willing to put up a fight.

Originally Posted by JohnR (Post 1156358)

Agree. Trump doesn’t know UA and probably had to shown on a map where UA and Crimea actually are.

UA is not part of NATO, the Baltic’s are though .
That is where we are obligated to get involved. UA we support, even with MIL/TECH transfer, especially if RUS tries to grab more. But this is a European problem and Europe needs to lead.

I really do have a hard time swallowing Trump’s passiveness on Putin. Hope we find out soon
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Originally Posted by Pete F. (Post 1156365)

Unfortunately I think Putin sees big cracks in the Euro, NATO, US alliance.
At the very least there is the appearance that the traditional alliances are fragile and in diplomacy appearances count.
Hopefully Trump will not learn the hard way that private beatings are better than public dressing down and that there are consequences to verbal abuse of other leaders. Those things have a way of coming back to bite you.

Originally Posted by detbuch (Post 1156363)

I doubt that Trump is creating his own policy re Russia. I believe he is depending on the advisers he has picked to craft a stance and response. Although, he may blurt out a tweet or Presser response that his opponents can twist to show what a lying dummy he is. I agree he should shut up more. But that likely won't change.

The dreadful thing about Putin's maneuvering is, in my opinion, crafted in respect to how he views the European and American public's desire to avoid war. As well, the pacifist views of European and American leaders.

Originally Posted by Pete F. (Post 1156365)

Unfortunately I think Putin sees big cracks in the Euro, NATO, US alliance.
At the very least there is the appearance that the traditional alliances are fragile and in diplomacy appearances count.
Hopefully Trump will not learn the hard way that private beatings are better than public dressing down and that there are consequences to verbal abuse of other leaders. Those things have a way of coming back to bite you.

Originally Posted by detbuch (Post 1156369)

There may be verbal squabbles, but there are no cracks in the alliance for Putin to see. There is a visible weakness in the partners will to actually fight. He tested that weakness and got Crimea. How much further testing he does remains to be seen. He and Trump are not getting along at this point. Europe has a way to go before it can match Russia's penchant for building military strength and aggression.

Are you willing to go to war with Russia and its alliance with China?

Originally Posted by JohnR (Post 1156370)

I think he is creating his own policy because what he says and what other senior / cabinet officials say do not always jive. And their responses tend to be more of a Bush era FP (which excepting Iraq was far better IMO than Obama's) but they have to temper their remarks so not to send the boss into a tizzy.

Agree on Putin's pushing to see what he can getaway with WRT Europe / NATO - which VVP actively wedges.

Agreed that Trump says a lot. But does it, in the end, amount to actionable policy? I admit I don't dig into the weeds of U.S. foreign policy, but does Trump actually craft foreign policies? He says things, but foreign policy is far more detailed and voluminous than the few things he has been reported to say. He has some opinions on entrenched sore points, such as Europe's inadequate funding of its NATO responsibilities. Maybe he has a few wishes, such as retribution for Syrian gas attacks, but he would have had to be briefed on the feasibility and leave the how and when to do it to the military.

What seems to be his personal policy toward Russia is cordial diplomatic relation and agreement rather than open hostility. And that seems to be eroding as Russia maintains its hostile stance and its apparent desire to get back territory. We were told that Trump was going to have us in some nuclear war by now, but it seems that he wants to carry a big stick but to walk softly.

And it may be a fault in some eyes that he sometimes criticizes the U.S. for doing what we accuse others of. I find it interesting that foreign governments, and our politicians and press are really upset because he doesn't come down hard on the Saudi Prince for the murder of Khashoggi. And yet we and all these countries have done the same. How many have been murdered by our CIA because they posed a threat to us? I don't know if Trump, on his own, decided not to damage our relations with Saudi Arabia, or if his advisors influenced him.

There are cracks. I also think it is easy to blame Trump for those cracks and far too easily (conveniently?) dismissed that every SecDef and CINCEUR for the past 20 years has told Europe Leaders again and again that they need to up their share for their own common defense. They only countries REALLY doing it are the former Soviet Block countries. This problem well predates Trump - can't blame him for that.



There are cracks. NATO's / EU's #1 powerhouse can sail, can't tank, and can't fly, but they have upped their NG imports from Putin. That is not a crack, it is a whole.

Originally Posted by JohnR (Post 1156358)

I really do have a hard time swallowing Trump’s passiveness on Putin. Hope we find out soon
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

Originally Posted by spence (Post 1156374)

If you’d like to speed up that process I can give you couple of pretty obvous hints.
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