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The managers have created paper fish--fish that exist only on paper. Stock assessment work is full of uncertainty. The commonsense rule--of what people see on the water--is impossible to quantify--and our present fishery management system is totally dependent on data, dependent to the point that science cannot fulfill it--because of $$$$. Who is going to pay for state and federal surveys, good surveys? And using landings and discards to come up with stock estimates seems tricky at best.
The paper fish thing happened a few years ago with codfish and back in 2004 with mackerel. Huge overestimates of stock abundance. Fish weren't there. The mackerel estimates were so big it brought over from Alaska a few of the pair trawlers. What tiny schools of mackerel those guys did find they annihilated and then quickly shifted to sea herring.
I'm glad my job isn't to come up with a single number that tells the fishing communities how many fish swim in the sea. But what is the alternative? We need the number. Not easy. It's a fu*cking labyrinth.
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