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Niko, I agree all of us posting here support the reduction. However make no mistake the votes at the upcoming meeting are far from guaranteed. As a matter of fact the soft counts I am involved in have a reduction being passed but the reduction being in name only...I will explain.
I do not think even the mid/south atlantic states like VA that openly are saying they are not in favor of a reduction will be able to duck using the reference points from the new assessment. Ill assume the new reference points are adopted. This will mean that "a" reduction is REQUIRED.
The second vote will be the timeline to take the reduction. The choices are clear. Take it all in one year or the three year phase in aka 7/7/7. The problem I and many others worry about is that if they choose the phase in and fail to achieve the target the only way to reduce harvest in a few years will be seasons, because we will already be using stretched out measures from this action that did not work. As I have stated in other places, do you want to risk the possibility of having to give up some of May or September? Not to mention the nightmare of having different size and or bag limits for three consecutive years.
Conversations up and down the coast indicate this vote is in serious question and one or two votes either way will swing it. Indications are that New England states are all for 1 year. Nj appears to be a real swing vote on this questions and indications are that NJ is in the 3 year camp, God I hope info on this is incorrect.
After that vote the coastal regs then will be another long debate, too many options....for me I just hope it ends up one fish. Any second fish or intricate slot and the discards are going to kill us in the next assessment.
Then there is the chesapeake votes and the commercial reduction votes etc.
I hope guys aren't assuming this reduction is a done deal. This Wednesday the rubber hits the road. Stand up and be heard or stop whining as this is the meeting we all need to show up and be present. Just like the big Menhaden vote of a few years ago, If we fill that room, our presence will matter. Leave it half empty like the hearings were half empty and we will have no one to blame but ourselves.
God I hope guys come out from behind the keyboards. 800 on a VS, 500 on a rod, 30 on a Sebile....my point is this Wed is worth taking a sick day over.
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