Quote:
Originally Posted by scottw
probably good to remember when talking about these reductions and arguing for exceptions that..according to the managers reports the agreed to reductions only have a 50% chance of achieving the intended results which is why many were working toward the 33% reduction given that this will not be revisited for 3 years.....
If total harvest is reduced by 25% starting in the 2015 fishing year, there is a 50% probability1 F will be at or below its target level within one year.
If total harvest is reduced by 17% starting in the 2015 fishing year, there is a 50% probability1 F will be at or below its target level within three years.
A 50% probability was the minimum recommended by the TC - a higher probability of being at or below the target
would require more restrictive management measures that achieve a higher reduction than the projections estimate is needed
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Well at least we know they can do simple math 😀
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