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Businesses thus far have sheltered American consumers from tariffs by eating some of the cost themselves and relying on stockpiled goods. As a result, inflation has remained subdued and economic growth strong enough through the first half of the year. But firms can keep only so much stock in warehouses. Analysts at BNP Paribas, a banking group, estimate that inventories will “clear” by the end of the summer, and prices will rise in turn. Right now, American consumers are facing an 18 percent effective tariff rate, the highest since 1934, the Yale Budget Lab estimates. Households will pay an average of $2,400 more for goods this calendar year, thanks to Trump’s policies.
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