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I think you’re right on about your assessment of recent November fishing. The odds for a keeper are better than during April and there are fewer fishermen, but I can’t remember the last good November we had for big fish. The good Novemebers of years past were characterized by favorable conditions coupled with the presence of large sand eels or mature menhaden. (Remember we had a streak of mild autumns and winters during the 1980’s – I’ve found that fall fishing without favorable conditions is terrible.)
What's weird is that on one hand we have people claiming that the bass are in trouble, while we simultaneously have winter fisheries for striped bass increasing, along with a very healthy fishery in the Gulf of Maine. At the same time, New Jersey has had some big fish spring runs the last three years.
Local fishermen may be complaining, but biologists will tell you that a species expanding its range and the time it spends throughout its range it is a good thing – a sign that they are competing against their own numbers.
I lean towards the assessment that the fish are out there, just not here. My own hypothesis is that for us to expect big fish in the fall we need, like before, some kind of big forage coupled with favorable weather - and we have not had either of those conditions met in a long time.
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