Striper Talk Striped Bass Fishing, Surfcasting, Boating - View Single Post - Don't believe global warming is happening?

RIROCKHOUND · 02-17-2005, 08:32 AM

NC..
I mentioned breifly what I felt about the previously...

Yes, on the shorter term less than a 100yrs, sea level does not drive coastal erosion... there are many geologists who think it does, but I am in the camp that believes erosion is storm driven... on the scale of 500-1000's of years sea level does determine where the shoreline will be, but as it effects on structures is minimal... heres why I think that

Take the SE New England coast for example; sea level at the Newport Tide gauge has risen about 2.7mm/yr since it was installed, with some wiggle here and there. This ammounts to about about 27cm of sea level rise/100 years... that means that if you built a house on the Charlestown Barrier after the Hurricane of 1938, your house is ~65 years old. Sea level has risen ~7" since then... Your averave storm surge on the Sshore in '38 was ~15ft give or take... 6" is chump change on that...

Short term erosion on the coast is driven by storms, tropical and extra tropical (NE'ers), and are generally based on these factors
(Hayes and Boothroyd, 1969)
1. Storm intensity
2. Storm track (east or west of location)
3. Stage of the tide (spring/neap)
4. Storm Duration (Often why SE'ers are more erosive than thier cousin the hurricane... they often last for many tide cycles, a hurricane is generally 1 tide cycle)
5. Time between storms

Where sea level rise has come into play is that houses built, even to code, that were high enough when constructed to allow the 100yr storm surge to pass under them are now not high enough to accomidate this surge... This is true for many structures...

Sea level also dictates where on the shelf the shoreline (barriers) will be, which is also dictated by the topography of the land behind the shoreline...

Bottom line, the beach will always be there, just not where you want it to be..

And Newboater.. that argument has been made and probably has some validity, but I think the amt of energy of the oceans far eclipses that of the effect of black top, but I still think it doesn't help matters much....

02-17-2005, 08:32 AM	#48
RIROCKHOUND Also known as OAK iTrader: (0) Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Westlery, RI Posts: 10,408	NC.. I mentioned breifly what I felt about the previously... Yes, on the shorter term less than a 100yrs, sea level does not drive coastal erosion... there are many geologists who think it does, but I am in the camp that believes erosion is storm driven... on the scale of 500-1000's of years sea level does determine where the shoreline will be, but as it effects on structures is minimal... heres why I think that Take the SE New England coast for example; sea level at the Newport Tide gauge has risen about 2.7mm/yr since it was installed, with some wiggle here and there. This ammounts to about about 27cm of sea level rise/100 years... that means that if you built a house on the Charlestown Barrier after the Hurricane of 1938, your house is ~65 years old. Sea level has risen ~7" since then... Your averave storm surge on the Sshore in '38 was ~15ft give or take... 6" is chump change on that... Short term erosion on the coast is driven by storms, tropical and extra tropical (NE'ers), and are generally based on these factors (Hayes and Boothroyd, 1969) 1. Storm intensity 2. Storm track (east or west of location) 3. Stage of the tide (spring/neap) 4. Storm Duration (Often why SE'ers are more erosive than thier cousin the hurricane... they often last for many tide cycles, a hurricane is generally 1 tide cycle) 5. Time between storms Where sea level rise has come into play is that houses built, even to code, that were high enough when constructed to allow the 100yr storm surge to pass under them are now not high enough to accomidate this surge... This is true for many structures... Sea level also dictates where on the shelf the shoreline (barriers) will be, which is also dictated by the topography of the land behind the shoreline... Bottom line, the beach will always be there, just not where you want it to be.. And Newboater.. that argument has been made and probably has some validity, but I think the amt of energy of the oceans far eclipses that of the effect of black top, but I still think it doesn't help matters much....
	Bryan Originally Posted by #^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^& "For once I agree with Spence. UGH. I just hope I don't get the urge to go start buying armani suits to wear in my shop"