Been looking at some interesting data, and had a discussion with an “expert" on the availability of large fish (50# class) for the next few years.
The past several seasons, 2005 in particular, there were considerably higher numbers of giant fish (50 # class) landed compared to the early 2000’s. The occurrence of these fish coincides with the last of the 1982 year class of fish, which would be 25 years old next year. This means, statistically, there won’t be many left due to the fact that they just don’t live that long on average.
I mention the 1982 class because it was the first class of fish with an above average YOY index during the recovery years. Subsequent years, say, the 1983-1988 classes were below average, and 1989 was the next above average year for the index. With this data, one could conclude that we may see a decline in super large fish between 2007 and 2009, as compared to 2005-2006.
This doesn’t mean some individuals won’t knock them dead, but implies the general availability of this class of fish will be fewer coast wide due to what was born 25 years ago. Beginning in 2010, the YOY numbers suggest a markedly increased availability of super large based on the 1989 year class of fish, which will be 20 plus years old. So what is the consensus, do you buy the experts math, or is it all voodoo?
http://www.dnr.state.md.us/dnrnews/p...6/102606b.html