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Ultimately, I think temperature (whether that be of rocks, air, or water) is the least important (and most overrated) factor regarding schoolie arrival. The single most important factor, in accordance to my ever brief experience on the water, is wind direction. I caught fish on April 1st last year. Looking back at weather logs, April 1st was approx. the fifth day of a sustained SW wind. These fish are extraordinarily wind dirven. On a flat calm day on an East wind you can see the shadows of fish schools. One can see that on these days the wind keeps them just out of casting distance. Gradualy, these fish get driven so far off the wall you can no longer see them, nor catch them. Therefore what I believe to be the ultimate factor regarding to their arrival is sustained SW wind. This is also supported by their meager showing thus far.
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