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Bait concentrates fish. I think that that is really the issue here. Those that have access (boat, skill, info, etc) to the bait are having a great year. Those that don't are just working for stray fish here and there that have broken off from the herd, so to speak. Lots of bunker in jersey and the bay = lots of fish in jersey and the bay = less fish other places. Lots of sandeels off shore on the cape = lots of fish off shore on the cape = less fish on shore on the cape (seals definately play a factor here - they're probably why the sandeels stay off shore now, or at least a factor).
I also think the fact that we've screwed up the ocean so much is a major factor here. Everything has been so overfished and thrown out of wack. The diversity of baitfish is way down. Its gotten to the point that when one species is protected (pogies), they flurish relative to other species (mackeral, scup, squid, whatever) and concentrate the bass on them. The number of seals on the cape is, partly, a result on overfishing of herring and cod in the gulf of maine where the seals should be - once again we've screwed up and there are consequences.
Up on the N. Shore of MA, with the exception of June's pogies in salem harbor and september's peanuts all over the place, I never really feel like there are a lot of inshore baitfish. As a result the fish are typically concentrated around the rocks eating crabs, lobster, pollack, sea robins, etc - more solitary prey. This makes them more attainable to surfcasters. If we had tons of herring within a mile or so of shore, those fish probably wouldn't bother coming in shallow and "scrounging" the rocks. I feel like that is why june usually isn't that great (at least at most of the spots I fish), july august and october are the best shots for larger fish, and september is big numbers but low quality usually.
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