[fishpoopoo]

Originally Posted by likwid

This is a finance discussion not a tin foil hat discussion.

We maybe in tin foil hat discussion time now ... maybe cuz it's time to short Goldman Sachs.

Holy Sheet. GS has (had) more toxic junk that Citi or Merrill does (did).

For those that don't understand the situation ... let's use a (poor) analogy.

Originally Posted by fishpoopoo's analogy

This is a hypothetical analogy: There has been a boom in beachmaster plugs. Everybody's been buying and trading cowboys and atom 40's and rare jointed dannies and darters.

Problem crops up on some of these after 100 casts - some of them split down the middle. And then, roughly 1/3 of them ooze date plutonium paint that makes your pecker fall off if you're not careful. And another 10% of these are sea robin aphrodisiacs. The value of these things has deteriorated by 90%, and NOBODY wants to trade them AT ALL (illiquid market).

Goldman Held Bigger Share of Level 3 Assets Than Citi, Merrill

By Yalman Onaran and Christine Harper


Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. held a bigger proportion of hard-to-value assets at the end of the third quarter than Citigroup Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co., two of the firms hardest hit by subprime mortgage losses.

Goldman's Level 3 assets, for which market prices are so scarce that companies use internal models to gauge their value, accounted for 6.9 percent of the New York-based firm's $1.05 trillion total at the end of August, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Citigroup classified 5.7 percent of its assets as Level 3 on Sept. 30 and Merrill reported 2.5 percent.

Investors have grown wary of banks and brokerages with difficult-to-sell securities on their books, after profits at Citigroup and Merrill were crippled by at least $19 billion of writedowns, mostly from bonds backed by home loans to borrowers with poor credit histories. While Goldman officials say the firm won't report an ``extraordinary'' drop in its subprime holdings, investors have remained skeptical, pushing its shares down 15 percent this month in New York Stock Exchange trading.

``It's hard to believe Goldman is perfect,'' said Jon Fisher, who helps oversee $22 billion at Minneapolis-based Fifth Third Asset Management and sold his Goldman, Merrill and Morgan Stanley shares in the past 12 months. ``Their losses might be smaller than others, but that doesn't mean they don't have a problem.''

Goldman posted a 79 percent increase in third-quarter profit, the biggest on Wall Street, even after shaving $1.48 billion from the value of high-yield loans. Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Bear Stearns Cos. reported declines, and Merrill Lynch & Co. said $8.4 billion of writedowns led to a $2.2 billion loss, the biggest in the firm's history. All the companies are based in New York.

LBO Market

``Just because they're in Level 3 doesn't mean we're not pricing them correctly,'' Goldman Chief Accounting Officer Sarah Smith said in a Nov. 9 interview. ``We mark our positions to the point where we could exit at that moment.''

The 33 percent increase in Level 3 assets in the third quarter was mostly due to the freeze in the leveraged buyout market, which left firms including Goldman stuck with loans, Smith said. Goldman wrote down the value of those commitments when the debt was moved to Level 3. As the buyout market recovers, the loans may be upgraded to Level 2, she said.

Goldman's Level 3 holdings totaled about $72 billion at the end of August. Stripping out stakes owned by others, Goldman's ``exposure'' was $50.9 billion, or 4.9 percent of the firm's total assets. A ``substantial percentage'' are private equity and real estate investments, said Goldman spokesman Lucas van Praag.

FAS 157

While those typically fall into the Level 3 category, assets such as leveraged loan commitments shift from one level to another depending on market conditions, Smith said.

``We take issue with the notion that all assets in Level 3 are hard to value,'' said van Praag. ``Given the disclosure rules, it is inevitable that any firm with a large private equity and real estate portfolio would have significant Level 3 assets.''

All the firms have adopted a Financial Accounting Standards Board rule, known as FAS 157, which requires public companies to disclose a breakdown of their asset valuations.

Under the rule, Level 1 assets are those for which market prices are readily available. Level 2 holdings are valued based on ``observable inputs,'' or prices of similar assets traded in the market. Assets fall into the Level 3 category when there aren't even any observable inputs, and the firm has to rely on in-house models to calculate potential gains or losses.

Prince, O'Neal

Morgan Stanley, whose Level 3 assets made up 7.4 percent of the firm's total at the end of the third quarter, said last week that it wrote down $3.7 billion in the first two months of the fourth quarter because of the declining subprime market.

Most of the writedowns were related to holdings of collateralized debt obligations based on subprime mortgage bonds. Goldman, like most firms, doesn't disclose the value of its CDOs, which are securities made up of other bonds and loans, including mortgages.

When Merrill announced its third-quarter writedown, the firm said its stake in CDOs fell by more than half to $15 billion. Citigroup reported last week that it had $43 billion of asset-backed CDOs. The company has said it may have to write down $11 billion on top of the $6 billion posted in the third quarter. All the firms are based in New York.

Shares of Citigroup and Merrill dropped more than 19 percent this month, and Citigroup Chief Executive Officer Charles O. ``Chuck'' Prince and Stan O'Neal, his counterpart at Merrill, lost their jobs.

`Measurement Error'

``The market does not exist for a lot of these things,'' said Edward Ketz, an associate professor of accounting at Pennsylvania State University in University Park, Pennsylvania. ``Third level measures are fraught with lots of measurement error, in part because you are using assumptions.''

Lehman, the biggest U.S. underwriter of mortgage bonds, categorized 5.3 percent of its assets as Level 3 and Bear Stearns, the second-largest, reported 4.2 percent.

``Even Level 2 is hard to price,'' said Roger Lister, chief credit officer for financial institutions at Dominion Bond Rating Service. ``Writedowns are coming out of Level 2 as well as 3. In the world of fixed income, prices have become less observable in the last few months. That's why Level 3 is surging.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Yalman Onaran in New York at yonaran@bloomberg.net ; Christine Harper in New York at charper@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: November 12, 2007 00:21 EST