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What do you figure the flight time of an intermediate range ballistic missile is, from southern Iran to Jerusalem or Tel Aviv?
If Russian missiles can reach North America in 15 minutes--do the Israelis get even 5 minutes warning? Israel has several potential enemies and not all of their warheads are necessarily targeted on Iranian cities and military installations. Retargeting is pretty easy, but it does require some time--which they may not get.
Retaliation requires two things--enough surviving armaments of your own, and someone to give a launch order. In the confusion over command between the first and second strikes, Iran could destroy both Israel and its retalitory capacity.
The location of Israel's strategic missiles isn't a secret, and it's a small country. They can't spread them out over thousands of square miles of prairie, the way we do.
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