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I think people have seen fish do the same thing year after year after year and thus they base their theory on the high chance that the fish will repeat history. For example Scorton is a place the fish seem to congregate in very high numbers this month before they move on. They come in waves usually. Add some northerly wind direction for a couple days and you can pretty much bet on it. Go there in mid summer and you won't find much. Just happens. It is documented. Then a lot of these fish start filtering thru the canal. Pretty obvious I would say when you get a lot of nice fish on the Ledge and a day or two later you start getting nice fish in the canal. Again add the wind direction and a large tide and you pretty much got a sure thing. I'd say their assumptions are pretty good in this particular situation. Where they go after, this time of the year, if I was a betting man I would say south and west from the canal.
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