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Storm update
Source: Weather.com 10:45a Jan. 30, 2009
Well, by now you've heard about the potential for a big winter storm. The hype machine is already in full-effect by some. Let's take a more rational look at the storm.
The one factor everyone needs to remember is that the potential winter storm is still 3 to 4 days away. Computer weather models have a tendency to flip-flop between different forecast scenarios from one model run to another.
A model run, by the way, is the time when a computer program produces a possible future weather scenario given the atmospheric conditions at the present time. Generally speaking, this is done about 2 to 4 times a day (a few weather models, however, are run every 2 to 3 hours).
So with that information in hand, it's quite difficult to hang your hat on a definitive forecast for this winter storm. The one thing we can say for certain is that there will be a winter storm over the eastern third of the country beginning on Monday and through all of Tuesday.
Computer weather models have been depicting two different storm tracks which you can see (attached picture):
Possible storm tracks
The interior track (Georgia to western Pennsylvania) will spell out very heavy snow (and in some cases possible blizzard conditions) for the the Appalachians and into western Pennsylvania and western New York. Heavy rain would fall along the East Coast including the I-95 corridor.
The more eastern track (Georgia to New Jersey/Long Island) would result in a heavy snowfall for locations east of the Appalachians including the big cities of the Northeastern I-95 corridor.
Models are currently trending toward the more eastern track but the finer details remain up in the air including the intensity of the storm and the speed of movement.
Keep it here at weather.com and The Weather Channel as we continue to fine-tune the forecast today and during the weekend.
Finally, we have one more thing to mention. In terms of destruction and costliness, this storm will come nowhere even close to the historic ice storm which struck Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas and Kentucky. In fact, there will be little to no ice associated with this storm. It will be your classic winter storm complete with heavy snow, high winds, and cold temperatures.
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