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striperman36 · 02-01-2009, 10:13 AM

Here's the weatherman's dilemma
No consensus in the models across the board -
US (GFS/NAM) shows the Mega-Storm
European (UKMET) shows it going way east
Canadian models(GGEM, ECMWF) are in the middle

This winter the GFS has been pretty accurate, but with the variance, even in models from run to run has almost everyone just shrugging

In the middle of the very snowy American models and the out-to-sea UKMET lies the Canadian GGEM and the ECMWF. These models have trended west over their last couple of runs but not as extreme as the GFS/NAM or SREF’s. They take low pressure about 100-150 miles further offshore than the American models with some light to moderate QPF, generally under a half inch, in the deformation banding on the backside of the storm. This would still give areas within 50-75 miles of the coast a 2-6” snowfall, roughly a half to a third of the output of the GFS/NAM.

02-01-2009, 10:13 AM	#80
striperman36 Old Guy iTrader: (0) Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Mansfield, MA Posts: 8,760	Here's the weatherman's dilemma No consensus in the models across the board - US (GFS/NAM) shows the Mega-Storm European (UKMET) shows it going way east Canadian models(GGEM, ECMWF) are in the middle This winter the GFS has been pretty accurate, but with the variance, even in models from run to run has almost everyone just shrugging In the middle of the very snowy American models and the out-to-sea UKMET lies the Canadian GGEM and the ECMWF. These models have trended west over their last couple of runs but not as extreme as the GFS/NAM or SREF’s. They take low pressure about 100-150 miles further offshore than the American models with some light to moderate QPF, generally under a half inch, in the deformation banding on the backside of the storm. This would still give areas within 50-75 miles of the coast a 2-6” snowfall, roughly a half to a third of the output of the GFS/NAM.