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I think it is the trend you should be more concerned with as opposed to a specific year absolute number and the average. I look at trend (either improving or worsening).
I attached a couple plots that have give me an uncomfortable feeling...
The first is the yoy index. You say 3.9 is the 09 value, look at the 10 year trend.
The other is the largest shore bass caught at the MV derby since 1947. Look at the trend since they reinstated it. (it was removed from the derby for a decade or so during the problem years) Now to be fair this is not 100% accurate as the rules changed over the years slightly, but one should also include the fishing "effort" today vs the effort back then...ie. there are 3X as many people fishing the derby today and it runs for 5 weeks now as opposed to 30 days back then. If you include that the worsening trend would be significantly modified. Also I know the numbers of fish are down as well as the weight. More importanly, If you look at bass/angler I think the trend would become more clear we are decling. I hope to get some more data and look at it in more detail with some some more solid statistics but I think this trend is bad. And what concerns me the most is that DMF (what ever group) will not worry about it until it is way too late. Their track record is abysmal, remember, they were "managing" SB as well as cod, flounder, and every other species that ran into problems. IMO they are actually part of the problem and not the solution.
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