[spence]

Originally Posted by JohnR

Hezbolla or Hamas could easily launch an attack greater than a menace against Israel with the assistance of Iran.

Without the coordination of Syria, Jordan and Egypt I don't see any chance they could really threaten Israel, and I don't see any chance of this happening in the next few decades. Could they give terrorists a nuke? It's not likely unless you believe in the crackpot 12th Imam stuff.

It is quite likely that the states in the region will start to come together over time, but from what I've read it's Turkey who will be running the show.

And just because a lot of Iranians are stable does not mean their leadership is. Though I am pretty confident that if H or H were to "menace" Israel with any NBC class weapons Israel's "strategic ambiguity" (I decided not to use that term yesterday, props to TT for using it) would no longer be a question and the response would be nuclear. Our posture was that there was a very real risk we would respond to WMD with WMD and seeing we no longer deploy much B&C of NB&C that at best our response would be heavily conventional and at worst, nuclear. If the attack were against the US or our citizens abroad by a terrorist group by proxy or with support of a nation state we have made it at least less likely that our response would be devastating - decapition of leadership / nation state as a whole. Remember, previous administration was for potential use of WMD to the perpetrators or the nations that harbored them. So now, deterrence is reduced. The non-power-projecting-menaces may feel a little extra comfort that they might not be glassed over. Yes, I understand that Iran and the NORKs may be ignored by the changes in the posture review but this is one step closer to them not facing a permanent retaliatory strike / regime elimination. They can survive a conventional strike.

I could only see Israel going nuclear if their existance was really on the line. And even then, it's difficult to imagine a scenario where they could nuke themselves out of it. Perhaps they could light up Tehran and scare the pants off of everyone else to stand down, but the chances of this erupting into a regional war are pretty good. They can't nuke everybody.

As to the eye for an eye position. I think this was all rhetoric and little reality. The US is not going to respond with Chemical or Bio weapons if we're attacked with the same. I definately could see us using a nuke to respond to the same. But nearly all situations are going to require the use of conventional forces, which is why we're in all these deadlock situations around the world.

I don't see any strategic ambiguity in our position. We are quite predictable. Israel wants everybody to be terrified of them (and they are) but this also limits their ability to operate. If they show the slightest sign of weakness it could erode the image. Not much ambiguity here.

Yes, I would hope that this can spur negotiations but I always thought that in negotiating you show your cards slowly while negotiating, not flipping them over before the others stroll up to the table.

I think Obama's strategy is to provide a clear direction then work others towards a common goal. If people think that something will happen, they will often times more than not side with who they believe to be the winner.

I'd note that he does appear to be making more progress than Bush.

Assymetrical warfare is being dealt at the menace level, We can't just limit the discussion to the menace level. So no, Iran / NORKs cannot project power and occupy US soil, they can make it so we can not occupy it for a while.

Ours or theirs? When was the last time a US territory was under foreign occupation?

And we are limiting ourself strategically now and at the same time due to optical rectumitis of current and previous administrations, limiting our ability to promote and maintain Pax Americana. The Chinese are loving it though, while we spend ourselves off to the poorhouse, we keep their Lines of Communication open and they don't foot the bill, other than helping us spend into the poorhouse. but that is another story and I have to get back to work.

China is pretty fragile as a nation. I think they're scared of their own long-term prospects.

-spence