Quote:
Originally Posted by numbskull
The stock was not recovered until 1987. Including numbers from 1981 to 1987 when deciding where to set the JAI artificially sets it lower than it should be and makes it easier to keep the fishery open. Surely they know that, so why did they draw the line at 1981??????
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My understanding is that, for the Virginia survey which I used above as an example, that 1981 is the year in which the survey method was standardized for that particular spawning area. Years prior to 1981 either no data was collected, or the data that was collected is generally not believed to be as accurate as it should be. This is why the Technical Committee is recommending that they be removed from the data set.
The same goes for the New Jersey JAI index, were under the new definition, all years prior to 1986 will be removed from the survey. Under the new definition, the New Jersey JAI index will go from this (years circled in red to be removed):
To this (data sets in green were above the threshold prior to recalculation):
You asked me on another forum why I would support the proposed new definition, since it still includes years prior to when the stock was declared "rebuilt".
My answer was this. I support it because that is what is on the table and it's better than what we currently have. I agree that
ideally we should get rid of all pre-1987 numbers, no argument there. Unfortunately that is not what is on the table.
There are two options on the table for this issue.
Option 1 = Status Quo, no change
Option 2 = Redefine the definition to a slightly more conservative position and make sure that future low JAI indices (which we know are coming) do not cause the bar to drop.
In my opinion, there is only one responsible choice given those two options.
If I was given the option to scrap the whole document and write my own, I'd go for that as well
It is also important to note that the New Jersey index and the Virginia index are the only two which are being redefined. The other 3 indices would remain unchanged
,,,, for now.