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BBBBBByeeeeeeee!!!
Statellite and reconnaissance fixes show that Earl has turned toward
the north-northeast...and the initial motion estimate is 015/15.
The track model guidance remains tightly clustered and shows an
increase in forward speed and a turn toward the northeast in the
next 24 to 36 hours as Earl is captured by a large mid- to upper-
level trough moving into eastern North America. Based on the
initial position and motion...the track forecast has been adjusted
a little to the east of the previous package...but lies on the left
side of the guidance suite. Later forecasts may be adjusted farther
eastward if the current motion to the east of due north continues.
Southwesterly shear of 15 to
20 knots is currently analyzed over the cyclone by UW-CIMSS and the
SHIPS model...and outflow is now restricted in the southwest
quadrant. Earl should continue to slowly weaken as it moves
northward over cooler waters and shear increases. Model fields and
cyclone phase space diagrams show Earl becoming extratropical by 48
hours...and being absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone by 72
hours. The official intensity forecast has been adjusted downward
slightly in agreement with the icon consensus.
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