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I've read a number of theories on this, many of them allude to the mycobacteriosis problem in the bay.
Opinions vary... some say that the females are more greatly affected, as they contract the disease while in the bay, and the stress of migration does them in.
Another interesting one was that the males are the most heavily affected... Theory states that females need X number of males in close proximity to them in order for spawning to be triggered... If the males aren't there (dead, not moving/lethargic due to infection) then the females simply won't spawn. You can have plenty of big girls, but no eggs are getting spewed.
Unfortunately I don't have the links bookmarked, if I find them I'll put them up.
Any way you look at it, recruitment is probably the most pressing concern at this time.
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