[piemma]

Originally Posted by Mr. Sandman

I find it reasonable but at times they have been off a lot, esp way offshore.

One thing to do is look at what is happening now and what is expected to come. it might be 5-10 now with 15-25 with higher gusts tonight and what happens is "tonight" comes faster than anticipated...like later this afternoon.

When I go offshore I check multiple weather sources and assume the worst.

That said, they do get it wrong from time to time....A year or so ago I recall listening to the weather radio while in Atlantis Canyon...they were saying it was 5-10 with 2-4 ' seas and it was to go to light and variable with seas less than 2'. The wind was easy 25 my hat flew off and seas were 10-12. I looked at my buddy and said...do you hear the forecast? what is wrong with this picture??? The next night around 3:00 am it finally dropped to light and variable but it was a difficult afternoon and evening.
Sometimes they are wrong, no question but in general I think they are not all that bad and you have to be ready for when they are wrong and prepare for that.
Weather prediction is more difficult than you think. It is similar to fluid flow prediction which is what I use to to do... Have you heard of the "butterfly effect"?... in theory, a butterfly flapping its wings in china can effect weather systems in the US ...what that means is you really have to model the entire globes atmosphere in fine detail to get anything accurate. If you do that the simulation is so complex and so slow (even with the worlds fastest computers) that the real weather system will come and go before the simulation is complete. So, they "simplify" the computer model and cut a few corners to get results sooner but at a cost of accuracy. This is esp true in hurricane path prediction and they run numerous models to approximate the path but they rarely hit it dead on. In any case... it is better than it use to be.

Great post. Thanks for the clarity