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It is junk science. Total junk.
When guys are pissed about license fees and say no to paying more (even though they would if the had to) it will be translated into "recreational fishermen aren't committed to their hobby".
When guys keep the check and fish anyways (since $500 would cover any fine they get), it will be that recreational fishermen can be bought of cheaply so they don't value the fishery.
This reeks of NOAA's commercial bias and you can be damn sure it is used to counteract the political pressure actually counting recreational fishermen is going to create.
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