Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim in CT
You posted some numbers without any links. I am a credentialed actuary, though I don't work in healthcare. There is no way that adding a 26 year-old to an "average" policy is only a 1.5% rate increase for an "average" couple. If that was true, kids that age could get health insurance policies for $25 a month, and they can't.
Your wrong b/c your making the wrong assumptions. First, I said "claims" would increase 1.5% in the example I gave - not premium. You take claims add the insurance companies, profit, expenses, taxes, etc. Still it is not much higher than the 1.5% - prob. 1.875%. Next, you're assuming that your claims will go up that amount - they won't. You, your wife, and child won't have additional claims. Johnny (said fiancee so he is single and I'll assume he doesn't have kids) won't have an increase in claims. The 50 year old who has a child covered under his policy b.c. the child was a student age 22 won't have an increase in claims. The working 24 year old with coverage won't have an increase in claims.
The only person who has an increase in claims is the person whose child wasn't insured b/c the policy wouldn't cover them (like a un/self/underemployed 22 year old non student). So total claims will increase 1.5% but we all will share the cost.
"And they have (health costs have gone up) for many, many years "
Ah. But Obama was the one claimed he could reverse that trend. And he didn't.If you want to discuss that, it is a different issue. I said I didn't see how Obamacare increased Johnny's premium $2,500.
"The minimum loss ratio law. Companies have to now give return premium if the claims don't hit a minimum loss ratio"
"has Johhny or you provided 1 piece of evidence to back his claim that costs went up $2,500 b/c of Obamacare?"
I made no such claim. You made the claim that the effect of Obamacare has a negligible impact on loss costs. You typed in some numbers with no link to any study. And your numbers make no sense whatsoever.Really, I just showed you how you seem to have made some bad assumptions.
Paul, please show me where a 25 year-old can get a healthcare policy for 1.5% of what his parents pay for a policy? Show me a policy for a typical middle-aged couple, that only increases in price by 1.5% by adding a 25 year-old? Show me that, and I will admit you are correct. Good luck with that.So now that I have showed that you have made what appears to be bad assumptions are you going to admit that I am correct?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim in CT
Fair question. I am a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society.  But I know that if you increase coverage, and don't do something else drastic (like serious tort reform), costs are not going to decrease. Costs cannot decrease. |
Tort reform is small bucks (still part of the answer). I have not stated anywhere here that costs would go down. Bringing everyone (young and healthy) may do it but I don't know.
Let's try to estimate his 2012 premium and back into 2011.
$900 - your stated family cost
x 12 months
$10,800 your annual premium
50% - my estimated for what I think single coverage for Johnny was in 2012 based on your 3 or more family coverage
$5,400 Johhny's 2012 premium
- $2,500 His estimate of what Obamacare cost him in 2012
$2,900 what his estimate of what his 2012 premium would have been w/o Obamacare
$2,636 - 2011 premium. Assuming 10% trend for 2012. This is what his company would have increased Johnny's premium from
2011 to get to the $2,900.
So it appears Johnny's premium would have increased from $2,636 for 2011 to $5,400 in 2012. 205% Is that what happened? Maybe my #s are off - but where?