Quote:
Originally Posted by RIROCKHOUND
So, show me the models you mean. The one that predicted what you (rhetorically) have said. Prove it. Not Al Gore said, not so and so said, the actual scientific paper (or pop media summary of it is fine; Anthony Watts blog doesn’t count). Until then, you are dismissed on this and I am done arguing with you. Not one credible global climate model said anything close to that.
Have there been some misses on models, absolutely, but to be completely dismissive is just stupid, and ignoring it is zealotry.
The ones I read and look at, which represent the best science out there have not been anywhere close to that. See the IPCC reports for examples. Not hair on fire, these represent consensus estimates, and tend to be conservative. In fact many of the vocal climate scientists often think they are too conservative.
Sea level rise, in the extreme is predicted to be north of 13ft in New London by 2100 (read rapid drawdown of Greenland and west Antarctic ice). High value is something like 9ft. The middle of the road estimates are 3-6 feet. If those middle values are anywhere near correct, costs and losses will be catastrophic, well before 2100.
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I don’t have the models. i know what the predictions were that have been released by the scientists. as i said, i have little doubt we need to change our ways, but as a scientist, when someone else is laughably wrong that consistently, they will
eventually lose credibility. i’m long, long past the point where
skeptical. 40 years ago we were facing an ice age, then global warming, then they defined it in the most vague possible term so that every possible result validated their theory...climate change.
i have solar panels on my house, and i spend more time in the woods getting dirty, and more
time on water getting soaked, than 98% of the planet, at least before we had kids that is. and i love animals more than 99.99% of the planet,,and cherish my kids futures more than 99.99% of the planet. so i’m heavily invested in a healthy planet .
but given their track record of making ridiculously wrong predictions, how can you not be skeptical? al gore got amazingly wealthy off this, and he doesn’t seem to be concerned, the only thing he’s unplugged in the last 20 years is his treadmill. if i was that wrong that often, no one would
listen to me. and they’d be right to laugh in my face. it’s still very very speculative because we are in unchartered territory here. we’ve never been in this path, so we can’t know what the effects will be.
accurate models ( like predicting how many times a coin will
turn up heads, or predicting mortality based on age), rely on a large set of data points to use to predict patterns and results, based on past observations. with this kind of climate change, we have no historical data to look at, this is all new. not easy to model
that way.
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