Quote:
Originally Posted by spence
I think there's zero chance Iran makes a pre-emptive strike on Israel. They are fully aware Tehran would be vaporized in an hour. Iran has no where to hide.
for all of them the number one agenda item is staying in power.
This is pretty much the Syria story as well. Assad recognized he need to start showing some reforms as the Arab Spring heated up and had a new administration willing to talk...but the resistance was more than he gambled on and escalated quickly into a full on civil war.
That's nonsense, it would be a messy situation no matter what.
Iran will get a nuke regardless of any red line...even Israel can't stop them now...the bigger question is if that's a show stopper. Remember, that regime doesn't want to lose power as well.
-spence
|
"I think there's zero chance Iran makes a pre-emptive strike on Israel. They are fully aware Tehran would be vaporized in an hour. Iran has no where to hide"
Spence, think for a minute. Many of these people (perhaps the leaders of Iran, perhaps not) are so committed to their cause, that they don't fear consequences, that's how you get so many suicide bombers. You can't necessarily apply logic to these people. The kooky president of Iran has said he would gladly be a martyr to wipe Israel off the map. Whether or not he means it, who knows?
"for all of them the number one agenda item is staying in power."
Not for all of them. For some, the really scary ones, the number one item is serving Allah, even if, or especially if, they have to die in the process.
"Iran will get a nuke regardless of any red line...even Israel can't stop them now"
Sure they can. Israel has nukes today. Iran doesn't.
My bet is that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon, and it won't be Obama that stops them, it will be Israel. The Israelis will never allow Iran to get a nuke, they will do whatever it takes to stop that, and they will be justified to do it. That's my prediction.