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Originally Posted by Jim in CT
i agree we don’t really have winters anymore. it’s changing. But “change” isn’t new. it’s not like things have always been exactly the same until recently. so unless nothing ever “changes”, that’s proof that you’re right?
i think things are changing, i think there’s a chance it’s because of
us. i want to study it. but i want the studies done by objective scientists, not activists.
GS, i build predictive models for insurance companies. the models are easy to build ( meaning the future is easy to predict), because we have so much actual, relevant data. i can accurately predict how much you need to charge 16 year olds for car insurance, because i have millions and millions and millions of records of data to tell
me exactly what kind of frequency and severity of accidents to predict.
Predicting the effects of climate change is not remotely similar. China and India have never been on the verge of industrializing before, so we have no idea what the effects will be. Not having any actual experience to rely on, you populate the models with assumptions.
the observed future accuracy of the models, tells you how good the assumptions were. The models have been laughably inaccurate up until now.
We are pumping more crap into the atmosphere. We know this. We don’t know with any certainty, the ability of the atmosphere or ocean currents to absorb it, or what will happen if they can’t.
i’m not a science denier. I build
predictive models for a living. But I’m not. zealot with a political agenda either. i’ll wager i jump through more hoops to spend more time on the water, under the water, and in the woods, than most people
here, and for sure i have a softer spot for animals that just about anyone. I’m absolutely persuadable on this issue, and i’m concerned about the issue. but not with unfounded gibberish.
if the models were accurate, North Dakota would be exporting pineapples by now. And if Al Gore really believed any of this ( as opposed to him seeing he could get filthy rich by saying we’re all going to die), he wouldn't live the way he does. Obviously he doesn’t believe what’s in the books he’s selling. which naturally makes
me skeptical.
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device
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Insurance companies probably have a really good idea about what the financial impact is today vs ten years ago due to disasters that may likely be due to changing climate. Entire ecosystems are in jeopardy, glaciers are melting at a fast pace, a beach thousands walked on in my youth doesn’t exist now with water right up to the sea wall, what concerns me is that the scientific community predicts there may be a point reached soon where the change can’t be halted or reversed.
So in the business your in, you know full well that if that prediction is true, the impact to everyone and everything on earth will be devastating. It’s not like gambling like Boston did, that the T and it’s antiquated system will last another decade, this gamble will cost lives, ecosystems and if it can be fixed the price tag down the road will be ten fold or more beyond today’s cost of prevention.