Thread: Lybia
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Old 03-17-2011, 02:07 PM   #4
spence
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I think it's taken some time to 1) build the consensus so there's an Arab face on this action rather than being seen as pure US intervention and 2) let it play out a bit. This deal would also give the Saudi Royal Family some cover as they crack down internally and help in Bahrain...NOTE: Both strategic US allies.

As Iran tries to stir the pot there's the Sunni/Shiite dynamic as well here. Iran would really like the (mostly Shiite) protests in Bahrain to be successful.

And the simple fact of what happened in Egypt will put pressure on even the US allies to reform faster.

Ultimately it's probably in our best interest to let these events push reforms more slowly without destabilizing the region or strengthening Iran.

Considering the complexity and variability of the situation, its actually not looking all that terrible. Obama seems to have been pretty careful to not make statements or promises we can't keep, something very different from Bush.

And if the UN does impose a no fly zone in Lybia, who's going to stand behind the Lybian Govt? The Sudan??? I'm not sure the regime can survive...

-spence
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