Well thankfully we have John Kerry to guide a path through the shoals here. If that doesn't work, we have Joe Biden in reserve on the bench ready to go. /Sarcasm
This is a fustercluck no matter how it works. Putin was trying to keep a lid on this until Sochi was done. This hit the hot water just after but had been brewing for a while.
Ukraine has 4 things important to Russia:
- Wheat - they are the Slavic breadbasket
- Warm water ports - year round warm water ports to sell their oil & LNG plus the Black Sea Fleet headquarters.
- Buffer between the Russians and everyone else.
- Russians. A lot of Russians that descended from the Russians that defended Ukraine from the Germans in WWII. Oh, and those that were put there to replace the many evicted Tartars
Ukraine means a LOT. Of all the former republics under the Soviet umbrella the one that probably means the most is Ukraine.
Militarily there are no great options. The Navy cannot get in there (the Turks might not even let us through as they try to figure out are they Muslim or EU/NATO). The Air Force would be playing in Russia's back yard. The Army is nowhere close and what is 1000 miles away is at the end of a
Russian railroad for logistical supply.
NATO/EU is a near useless shell of a force that could stop the Russians heading west but not much else - the fruits of a peace dividend and near 2 decades of having the US do their heavy lifting. We can't afford it anymore. They are not going to go into Ukraine and have the Russians turn off their heat (they buy Russia's LNG).
If I were the Baltics, Poles, and Czech/Slovs, I'd be real nervous.
This will at best be settled diplomatically / economically. At worst, if our vaunted elected leaders fail, any other country with a treaty / memorandum is going to be real concerned that we will not meet our obligations. Taiwan / Japan / Philippines / Poland / Balitcs / Israel are all watching this very intently.
Crimea is gone, South Oesstia all over again. With luck, Crimea is the only thing lost. They could use the same tactics and get the entire coast from Odessa to the Crimea under their wing and have a small, landlocked Ukraine remaining.
This major leadership deficit in our country is gonna hurt us real soon. From both parties.
The Titanic Deck Ass Containment Apparatus Rearrangement Team is in full swing.