Quote:
Originally Posted by spence
I see by this statement you're pretty clueless as to how polling actually works...or you just don't care.
-spence
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got nuthin'...huh...
don't worry Spence...things are really looking up for your HERO
James Pethokoukis writing at Reuters quotes at length from a new report by Goldman Sachs that, he says, dropped an economic bomb on President Obama's chances for reelection." The report offers a doleful estimate for unemployment by election 2012 while advancing the possibility of a double dip recession:
Following another week of weak economic data, we have cut our estimates for real GDP growth in the second and third quarter of 2011 to 1.5% and 2.5%, respectively, from 2% and 3.25%. Our forecasts for Q4 and 2012 are under review, but even excluding any further changes we now expect the unemployment rate to come down only modestly to 8¾% at the end of 2012.
The main reason for the downgrade is that the high-frequency information on overall economic activity has continued to fall substantially short of our expectations.
Pethokoukis concludes:
Goldman Sachs doesn't have to tell you things are bad. I don't have to tell you things are bad.
Everybody knows things are bad.
EXCEPT SPENCE 
Unemployment is at 9.2 percent (11.4 percent if the official labor force hadn't collapsed since 2008 and 16.2 percent if you include discouraged and underemployed workers.) Moreover, the economy grew at just 1.9 percent in the first quarter of this year and may have grown less than 2 percent in the second. Wages and income are going nowhere fast.