Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim in CT
The models are based, largely, on speculative assumptions. That's where the skepticism comes from.
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No, that is not how they work. Models are tuned to existing data to replicate complex problems and then are used to make projections. Are some assumptions involved? Of course. But most good models don;t just start today and look forward blindly. Note they language in the video; trends are important here, not exact dates. Like I said reasonable people can disagree on where/how fast we are headed, and exact dates are squirrelly given the short-term variability in climate/weather patterns.
As an aside, many of the climate models made 20 years ago have been compared to measurements since then, and the scare part for at least SLR, which I am most well-versed in, is that we are trending towards the higher predictions.... Rahstorf et al out of Germany have numerous peer-reviewed papers on this.
Good primer here: