Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim in CT
not no. yes. that’s why NONE of the dire predictions have come true. if it was an exact science, philadelphia would oceanfront. and alaska would
be exporting pineapples. i build
predictive models for a
living, and i do it it an area where it’s almost am exact science.
why have none of the dire predictions come true? because the models were off. you can’t ever make that statement wrong. only a zealot would
try to make that wrong.
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So, show me the models you mean. The one that predicted what you (rhetorically) have said. Prove it. Not Al Gore said, not so and so said, the actual scientific paper (or pop media summary of it is fine; Anthony Watts blog doesn’t count). Until then, you are dismissed on this and I am done arguing with you. Not one credible global climate model said anything close to that.
Have there been some misses on models, absolutely, but to be completely dismissive is just stupid, and ignoring it is zealotry.
The ones I read and look at, which represent the best science out there have not been anywhere close to that. See the IPCC reports for examples. Not hair on fire, these represent consensus estimates, and tend to be conservative. In fact many of the vocal climate scientists often think they are too conservative.
Sea level rise, in the extreme is predicted to be north of 13ft in New London by 2100 (read rapid drawdown of Greenland and west Antarctic ice). High value is something like 9ft. The middle of the road estimates are 3-6 feet. If those middle values are anywhere near correct, costs and losses will be catastrophic, well before 2100.
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