Scientists Surprise Fishermen with Talk of Cod Collapse

[Soundbounder]

In 2008, a NOAA assessment of the cod fishery in the Gulf of Maine gave groundfishermen cause for hope. The cod stocks, which had been heavily overfished in the 80s and 90s, were showing strong signs of recovery. Cod numbers were stronger than they had been in three decades, according to the assessment, and recovery seemed reachable by 2014. The report caused many Maine fishermen to believe they could count on cod in the coming years, said Ben Martens, policy director of the Midcoast Fishermen’s Association.

“People build business plans around that,” Martens said.

But a lot may have changed in the last three years. In a recent NOAA cod stock assessment working group meeting, scientists revealed data showing the fishery has collapsed. If the assessment is accurate, there is no chance cod numbers will recover to meet the 2014 recovery target, even if the fishery is closed completely. While this assessment is only a preliminary interpretation of the data, it is enough to cause groundfishermen to hold their collective breaths and brace for the worst.

Scientists Surprise Fishermen with Talk of Cod Collapse

[Nebe]

you know what eats baby cod right????


DOGFISH!!! F-ING morons in NOAA cant seem to grasp this..My apologies to my NOAA friends that read this.

[Raven]

the amount of denial
is astounding

[Mr. Sandman]

This fishery should have been completely closed for the last 2 decades and a bounty placed on dogfish to keep their numbers controlled. It astounds me that they allowed fishing even for the big breeders FOR YEARS and YEARS when the stocks were trying to recover.

IMO fishery managers at all levels have got to go. They are being pulled in to many directions in an effort to maintain maximum yield theory of commercial fishing and that is downright dumb thinking...it can not be done accurately with today's technology.

[JohnnyD]

Originally Posted by Mr. Sandman

This fishery should have been completely closed for the last 2 decades and a bounty placed on dogfish to keep their numbers controlled. It astounds me that they allowed fishing even for the big breeders FOR YEARS and YEARS when the stocks were trying to recover.

IMO fishery managers at all levels have got to go. They are being pulled in to many directions in an effort to maintain maximum yield theory of commercial fishing and that is downright dumb thinking...it can not be done accurately with today's technology.

Maximum Sustainable Yield is a pseudonym for "Total fish we think can be caught before a complete stock collapse occurs."

[MikeToole]

Several of the reports from Canada noted that the tables have been turned up there. The fish that cod eat are now eating so many cod that the cod cannot recover. They believe that herring and other bait fish are eating up most of the cod fry before they have a chance to mature. Many predict that there is a good chance the fishery will never recover.

[Mr. Sandman]

This would not surprise me because they fished the cod down to a point where they don't have a critical mass of breeders to sustain any significant growth of the population. This could take thousands of years for a comeback, if ever.

Did anyone learn anything from this? Certainly the US fishery managers haven't.

[RIROCKHOUND]

Originally Posted by MikeToole

Several of the reports from Canada noted that the tables have been turned up there. The fish that cod eat are now eating so many cod that the cod cannot recover. They believe that herring and other bait fish are eating up most of the cod fry before they have a chance to mature. Many predict that there is a good chance the fishery will never recover.

Just substitute Dogfish for Herring down here

[Mr. Sandman]

I predict we will see this headline someday.

[likwid]

Originally Posted by MikeToole

Several of the reports from Canada noted that the tables have been turned up there. The fish that cod eat are now eating so many cod that the cod cannot recover. They believe that herring and other bait fish are eating up most of the cod fry before they have a chance to mature. Many predict that there is a good chance the fishery will never recover.

Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Canada collapse in the late 80's early 90's?

[Soundbounder]

Story in yesterday's NYT:

Scientists Say Cod Are Scant; Nets Say Otherwise

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/11/us...ocks.html?_r=3

Some fishermen say they are seeing more cod in the Gulf of Maine than they have in years. Many in Gloucester have already reached their quota for the fishing year that started in May and are looking to buy the rights to catch more from others who have not yet reached their federal limit. Recreational fishermen, who land more than 30 percent of the total Gulf of Maine cod catch, are reporting similar observations.

“I’m telling you, it’s out there,” said Russell Sherman, who started fishing for cod in 1971 and has just about reached his annual allocation of 25,000 pounds. “We’ve had no problems locating codfish.”

But scientists take more into account than what fishermen see.

“Fishermen will almost always tell you that, and it’s not that they’re lying,” said Mark Kurlansky, whose 1997 book, “Cod: A Biography of the Fish That Changed the World,” documented how Canada’s once-abundant Atlantic cod were fished almost to extinction. “Landing a lot of fish can mean the fish are very plentiful, or it can mean the fishermen are extremely efficient in scooping up every last one of them.”

[JohnnyD]

This is a great line:

“Fishermen will almost always tell you that, and it’s not that they’re lying,” said Mark Kurlansky, whose 1997 book, “Cod: A Biography of the Fish That Changed the World,” documented how Canada’s once-abundant Atlantic cod were fished almost to extinction. “Landing a lot of fish can mean the fish are very plentiful, or it can mean the fishermen are extremely efficient in scooping up every last one of them.”

Seems applicable to the "striped bass stocks are healthy. You just needed to fish specific areas of the Bay" people.

[MikeToole]

Originally Posted by likwid

Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Canada collapse in the late 80's early 90's?

The government listed it in 1992.

By 1992, the biomass estimate for northern cod was the lowest ever measured. The Canadian Minister of Fisheries and Oceans had no choice but to declare a ban on fishing northern cod. For the first time in 400 years the fishing of northern cod ceased in Newfoundland. The fisheries department issued a warning in 1995 that the entire northern cod population had declined to just 1,700 tonnes by the end of 1994, down from a 1990 biomass survey showing 400,000 tonnes, and showed no sign of recovery - just 1700 tonnes remained in a fishery that had for over a century yielded a quarter-million ton catches, year after year. The fisheries department also predicted that, even in the unlikely event that the fish stock started an immediate recovery, it would take at least 15 years before it would be healthy enough to withstand significant fishing.

[thefishingfreak]

Good news
SavingSeaFood - Senator John Kerry asks NOAA and Commerce Department for an immediate new Gulf of Maine cod assessment
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

[JohnnyD]

Originally Posted by thefishingfreak

Good news
SavingSeaFood - Senator John Kerry asks NOAA and Commerce Department for an immediate new Gulf of Maine cod assessment
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

Yeah for the commercial fisherman who, if there is a crisis, helped contribute to it.

With Kerry's proposal, they might make out either way. If the reassessment "shows" (I put that in quotes because the report will surely be influenced by those with gov't pull) that the stock has not been fully exploited, they get to hit the cod stocks more. If the reassessment reports a major issue with the cod stocks, Kerry wants to give them a bailout.

Sounds a lot like the banking sector - contribute to the development of a crisis, then profit from the government bailout.

"-urging NOAA to take action to maintain the sustainability of the fishery and the Gulf of Maine cod stocks while the new assessments are being done."

Basically, "don't take the conservative approach even though it make result in irreparable damage to the fishery"

[Mr. Sandman]

Without having this moved to the political thread...this is EXACTLY why I dislike liberal politicians..it is all about handouts for doing nothing (esp to groups that whine) If you read between the lines, he was clearly approached buy a commercial fishing organization who is in panic mode about the recent cod status report and are insisting he do something, because either way they are negatively affected. I am sure they feel they are being screwed either way and they need protection and/or assistance from the liberal politician they help get that office.

I would rather see the fishery maintained for its own health regardless of the repercussions to the fishermen or fishing communities. Do what it right for the fish and let the chips fall where they do. No one is forcing anyone to fish or stay in the fishing business. One must adapt or perish in society.

[Soundbounder]

Originally Posted by Mr. Sandman

Without having this moved to the political thread...this is EXACTLY why I dislike liberal politicians..it is all about handouts for doing nothing (esp to groups that whine) If you read between the lines, he was clearly approached buy a commercial fishing organization who is in panic mode about the recent cod status report and are insisting he do something, because either way they are negatively affected. I am sure they feel they are being screwed either way and they need protection and/or assistance from the liberal politician they help get that office.

I would rather see the fishery maintained for its own health regardless of the repercussions to the fishermen or fishing communities. Do what it right for the fish and let the chips fall where they do. No one is forcing anyone to fish or stay in the fishing business. One must adapt or perish in society.

Spare me the talk radio repeated political nonsense.

You don't think Republican politicians are lobbied by industries for handouts, tax breaks, and subsidies????

Are you for real?
Do you really believe that?

[Mr. Sandman]

Yeah but at least corp's produce something (jobs and most of the taxes)...out of work fishermen on the other hand....don't produce much of anything. No subsides...zero!!! THEY CAUSED THE #^&#^&#^&#^&ING PROBLEM!!!

I just don't get Liberals...They are "pro jobs" yet always anti business and think anyone who makes a profit is a terrible person and should be forced to give his profits to the government so they can hand it out to those that really deserve it. Makes me sick

Don't get me going...it's cocktail hour at the club right now. Where are hell my Cubans?


I am sorry this become so off topic. It is my fault, I knew it would. I'm done here...unsubscribed.

[Soundbounder]

New London Day

No easy Answers For New England's Cod Crisis

The Day - No easy answers are appearing to solve New England's cod crisis | News from southeastern Connecticut

[Soundbounder]

Seals Blamed for Cod Collapse

A huge seal population is preventing cod stocks from rebounding off Nova Scotia, two former directors of science at the Bedford Institute of Oceanography say.

The work of Bob O'Boyle and Mike Sinclair backs what fishermen have argued for years.

"We conclude that indeed the seals are responsible for the lack of recovery of the cod," Sinclair told CBC News.

Sinclair retired as director of science at BIO in Dartmouth, N.S. He took over the job when O'Boyle left.

They decided to do their own study looking at the connection between cod and seals because they believe some other studies aren't accurate.

"Basically, we were not convinced that the studies that were out there really accurately reflected what was going on, so we thought we'd have a look at it ourselves," Sinclair said.

Commercial fishing of cod was banned on the Scotian Shelf in 1993, after decades of overfishing led to the collapse of cod stocks.

The Sable Island seal population has spiked since the 1970s, climbing from about 3,000 to 300,000, a doubling of the population every seven years.

Sinclair and O'Boyle agree with other researchers that as the number of grey seals grows, the amount of fish consumed spikes too.

Seals blamed for lack of cod recovery - Nova Scotia - CBC News

[Soundbounder]

On cod, NOAA cannot see the forest for the trees

At the recent Scientific and Statistical Committee meeting to review Gulf of Maine cod, the Committee voted not to ratify the assessment, a significant legal step that leaves open more Council options for its meeting next week. Further, both environmental groups and the recreational fishing alliance feel the survey is flawed.

The defenders of the study argue it is based on 'better science'. But the more they talk, the more some of the science looks like guess work.

For example, one of the arguments against the 2008 assessment was that it included large tows in 2003 and 2005 that should be discounted.

But you can't have it both ways: if you base much of your assessment on a random survey, you can't throw out the results you don't like. Increasingly treatment of survey data seems too dependent on the outcome of one or two tows.

SavingSeaFood - JOHN SACKTON: On cod, NOAA cannot see the forest for the trees

[thefishingfreak]

This Wednesday there is a meeting in Portsmouth that will address this.
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device