Hurricane Isabel Landfall Prediction Contest - Striper Talk Striped Bass Fishing, Surfcasting, Boating

Joe · 09-14-2003, 09:59 AM

Objective: Predict Hurricane Isabel’s Landfall –he who is closest to where the center of the eye comes ashore, wins. It looks as though landfall is going to happen. But who ever is closest, even if it goes out to sea, wins....
Time Limit: All guesses must be made by 5:00 pm Monday, 9/15/03
Prize: A Tattoo 2.5oz Swimmer & a couple of Bombers
Cost: 1$ donation to S-B com - use button at bottom of page
Rules:
Pay 1$ before guess
No duplicate locations.
Guess must be a city or town name.
No latitude longitude numbers.
Only one guess (named place) per 1$.
No changing your guess as landfall becomes nearer.

Sponsor: Surfcasting Rhode Island (AKA: Joe)
http://surfcasting-rhodeisland.com/

Joe · 09-14-2003, 10:22 AM

I changed tyhe rules after the initial post...re-read orig mesage

JohnR · 09-14-2003, 10:23 AM

Seeing that I can't e-mail myself PayPal donation money

...

It's going to make landfall and really screw up between Chincoteague and Assateague, so I'm saying Assateague Island, the barrier beach area in VA/MD area south of Ocean City, MD. OC is going to get HAMMERED...

This storm will then strut up the coast staying within 50 miles either way of the coastline till getting up to NE and then it will run over Woostah and into NH.... Unless it goes east or west of all I just said

Greta contest! Thanks Joe! Wanna fish this week sometime?

likwid · 09-14-2003, 10:28 AM

Virginia Beach work?

Joe · 09-14-2003, 10:29 AM

Yeah - I changed the rules, first it was $1, then free, now back to a dollar -
I had too much coffee....
But it is back to a dollar entry fee - where it will stay...
Likwid - don't worry about whether or not you paid the 1 - but pick a city/towm

Joe · 09-14-2003, 10:35 AM

John -
I have some deadlines but maybe Tues/Wed night....Can you do a late night trip?

JohnR · 09-14-2003, 10:50 AM

Sure - define late night

?

beachwalker · 09-14-2003, 11:32 AM

Given the roughly 300nm variance in track certainty for weds/thurs AND the larger potential for an eastward drift (reliant on the position of the current Atlantic High) my guess is that it will make a landfall directly across Long island (Sayville). It will graze the Mid-Atlantic and, losing strength, will begin to gain pace as it moves toward NY/Conn. This will bring Category 1-3 conditions from Hatteras to the North. It will seriously threaten where John's has placed his bet with Category 4 + and then.........

Oh man, I obviously don't feel good about this one. No matter where it hits.

One thing for sure:

Sharp hooks and new leader all the way around for next week !

Joe · 09-14-2003, 12:22 PM

Beachwalker....So you are buying Sayville, NY for landfall?
That Means:
John R. = Assateague Island
Beachwalker = Sayville
Likwid = Virgina Beach

Do we have any others?

John - I'll pm you with the fishing trip details.

beachwalker · 09-14-2003, 01:09 PM

Got Stripers · 09-14-2003, 02:24 PM

Send it paking, I'm trying to sell a house, I don't need more work and I've got a couple ancient bid arse pines in my front yard. The only thing worse would be big arse ancient willow trees, which I had come through a roof during Bob, back in my Braintree days.

Christian · 09-14-2003, 03:25 PM

here i am! rock you like a hurricane!!

Mike P · 09-14-2003, 03:35 PM

Thanks, beachwalker. Sayville is about 15 miles due south of me

Maybe I should do some early prophylatic tree limb trimming

Good thing is, I'm right on top of a hill, about 100' above sea level, so flooding won't be an issue---I hope.

beachwalker · 09-14-2003, 05:12 PM

Sorry Mike

But the Medium Bam computer model puts right on me so.........

Good luck everyone

bud8fan · 09-14-2003, 05:43 PM

I sure hope it doesnt parlay Virginia Beach as I am supposed to go down there to fish with an internet friend over Columbus weekend!!

likwid · 09-14-2003, 06:37 PM

bud8fan just sealed it with a "i hope it dosen't..."

Joe · 09-15-2003, 12:05 PM

4 more hours and contest closes

RIROCKHOUND · 09-15-2003, 12:15 PM

I'm guessing that the eye will pass over/near Cape Hatteras, N.C.

Bryan
aka
'hound

tlapinski · 09-15-2003, 01:56 PM

myrtle beach, SC.

hooked · 09-15-2003, 02:08 PM

Wilmington/Cape Fear NC

rwilhelm · 09-15-2003, 02:42 PM

Morehead City, NC

beachwalker · 09-15-2003, 07:42 PM

Joe,

Good contest and good cause. If I had any brains I would have waited until the last specified minute and submitted my guess.

It looks as though Hatteras is going to get hit with a Category 3.
We hope everyone will be safe there.

The forecast figures we can expect swells and rips only the south into the weekend. A benfit for the bite here is that eventually it goes to SW flow and we never really get the dirty water.

I'm a goin' fishin'

jugstah · 09-15-2003, 08:04 PM

Whether there's dirty water or not, I'm still taking my chances and going fishing before and after the Hurricane blows by... after all, you never really know unless you try....

and the Hurricane is going to blow out to sea... that's my hope.

Joe · 09-16-2003, 12:41 AM

OK - Now we'll wait and see....
I just got in from fishing (it's 2:00 am, Tuesday)....
Conditions went downhill in the 4 hours I was out, wind picked up as did the surf....I was in J-Town...
There was no space between the sets and it was almost impossible to stay in contact with anything...I did manage one small keeper on a big eel.

RIROCKHOUND · 09-16-2003, 06:58 AM

Joe, found the same thing in So. County.. I dont mind big swells, but there was about a 6 sec period and it was 'primal' fishing..
I got the skunk.... glad to hear you did ok...
'hound
aka
Bryan